ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 7:44 PM EDT934
FXUS61 KILN 062344
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
744 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will meander across the region through Sunday,
providing periods of showers and storms. Seasonably warm and humid
conditions will prevail until some slightly drier air returns to the
area in the wake of the front by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Westerly mid level zonal flow with a weak surface frontal boundary
draped across central Indiana and central Ohio. A series of
disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast overnight.
Initial surface wave has pushed off to the east with a few lingering
showers/thunderstorms across the central Ohio area. Moderate instability
has developed ahead of impulse currently moving thru the Ohio
Valley. This moderate instby combined with effective shear around 35
kts will lead to better organization. ILN/s area is on the northern
periphery of this convective complex which will affect areas mainly
along and south of the Ohio River. A few of these storms thru early
evening could produce gusty winds.
The next thunderstorm complex associated with a well developed MCV is
moving across southern ILN and western KY. This complex will develop
into ILN/s southwest counties early this evening and then spread east
across the area thru the overnight hours. A few of the storms may
produce strong to damaging winds - mainly across the southwest prior
to weakening and becoming more elevated into the later evening.
PWat values are around 150 percent of normal and the east-west
orientation of the convection could lead to heavy rainfall and local
flood issues.
Although the main convection stays across ILN/s southern counties
some stratiform rain will likely extend to the north to the southern
reaches of the I-70 corridor tonight.
There will be a slight shift of the front to the south overnight
with surface winds shifting to a light northerly flow. Temperatures
drop to a low from near 60 north to the mid 60s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly mid level flow with residual pcpn from remnants of a wave
moving off to the east affecting our southeast counties Saturday
morning. After this initial pcpn the remainder of the morning thru
most of the day should stay relatively dry. Can not rule out some
isolated activity along and south of the Ohio River close to the
stalled out frontal boundary where moderate instability develops.
A progressive mid level shortwave and associated surface low to
move into the region Saturday night. The front to lift back north
Saturday night as the low moves the area by Sunday morning.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase and spread
northeastward into the evening hours. The main concern with this
activity is locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures top out around 80 on Saturday and then drop to lows from
60 to 65 by Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active weather pattern will be in place for the Sunday through
Tuesday timeframe. An area of low pressure will move across the
region on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty in the expect
placement of the low, however showers and thunderstorms are expected
during the day on Sunday. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to
severe storm. Even outside of thunderstorm activity, expect breezy
conditions for Sunday.
Expect a lull in the precipitation most of Sunday night, however
additional precipitation chances work back into the region late
Sunday night. Expect additional shower and thunderstorm development
across the area on Monday before decreasing chances once again
Monday night. Some residual showers will be possible on Tuesday
before taping off.
Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night through Thursday night.
There are then indications that another system will potentially move
in for Friday however there are still timing differences with this
system.
High temperatures in the extended are expected to be in the 70s and
80s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The messy forecast continues through the TAF period as a stalled
frontal boundary is draped across the region. Recent radar returns
indicate storms moving into the Tri-State and closing in on the KCVG
and KLUK sites. Have TEMPO -TSRA for these sites for the next several
hours, then trend out the thunder and keep a -SHRA.
All other sites simply have -SHRA for periods during the overnight
into the early morning hours on Saturday. Winds will be light, out of
the north, eventually out of the northeast.
CIGs and VSBYs are the difficult part of the forecast tonight.
Guidance is all over the place, with a handful of hi-res suggesting
IFR CIGs during the early morning hours and other guidance suggesting
a BKN MVFR deck. Tried to split the difference with a slight hedge
toward the more optimistic forecast, however, be aware that this may
be amended overnight.
Similar story with VSBYs. Definitely a signal for patchy fog
overnight with the ample moisture in place. Have VSBY reductions to
MVFR for all sites with the exception of KLUK, which have tanked down
to VLIFR during the early morning (protection of the river valley
plus the additional moisture from the Ohio River... fog confidence is
a bit higher here).
Fog dissipates around sunrise. There is a signal that clouds
scattered out briefly for northern TAF sites (KDAY, KCMH, KLCK)
before they thicken up again during the late morning/early afternoon.
Saturday night, renewed chances for showers move into the Tri-State,
but did not include in the KCVG TAF due to length.
OUTLOOK...Some storms will be possible Saturday night and again
early Sunday. MVFR CIGs are possible again Sunday and Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 7:44 PM EDT---------------
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