WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 6, 3:42 PM CDT278
AGUS74 KWCO 062058
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #108 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
3:42 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southern MO/IL/IN into KY and northern TN
WHEN: Through this evening
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 3", locally 4"+ (HRRR)
QPE: 1 - 4" (MRMS 48-hr)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2/hr (HRRR)
Soil Moisture: 60 - 70% RSM (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Normal to Above Normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Localized flooding impacts are possible due to multiple rounds of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
In the western portion of the area of concern, mainly southern
MO/IL/IN and western KY, these areas have already experienced heavy
rounds of rainfall over the past 48 hours. They are primed with
higher values of soil moisture and further rainfall will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, especially in low lying and
vulnerable terrain. Across the rest of the area of concern, in
eastern KY and northern TN, the threat of flooding is mainly due to
repeating rounds of rainfall over some locations as well as hilly
terrain.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWC) has been consistently
signaling the same areas of southern MO/IL/IN and western KY for
rapid-onset flooding (ROF) potential (25 - 75%), increasing
confidence in the placement of potential impacts. ROF signals are
also beginning to move eastward with successive model runs.
Corresponding annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from the high
flow magnitude forecast service below 10% are noted across
southeastern MO/southern IL in recent runs, and similar magnitude
AEPs are also noted further east into central KY, suggesting some
uncertainty in exactly where the worst of the impacts will be seen.
But with several basins across the area showing streams exceeding the
2% AEP threshold, some significant stream rises/responses are
possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//DPL
ATTN...WFO...ILN...MEG...SGF...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK...JKL...RLX...OHX...MRX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 6, 3:42 PM CDT---------------
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