IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 2:15 AM EDT970
FXUS63 KIWX 030615
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
215 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and breezy today, with Canadian wildfire smoke leading to another
hazy day.
- A cold front brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday with damaging wind gusts and small hail the main
threats. Heavy rain will also be possible.
- Additional heavy rain chances will linger into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Discussion...
Low/mid level ridging over the Tennessee Valley has allowed
Canadian wildfire smoke to linger across the eastern half of the
United States. Under a south to southwest flow regime, this
smoke will continue to advect north across our area, keeping
skies hazy for another day. Strong afternoon mixing, which will
subsequently result in gusty S to SSW winds of 20-30+kt, might
mix some smoke down to the surface (at least enough to be
detectable) and result in minor impacts for sensitive
populations. Will also nudge afternoon high temps down a degree
or two to account for the lowered amount of incoming solar
radiation.
Our next solid shot at precipitation will arrive beginning
Wednesday afternoon with the arrival of a frontal passage. A
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms will exist with damaging
winds the primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates and
copious DCAPE, although some small hail cannot be ruled out as
well. According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is also
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for our area with
widespread totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches, with a 30% chance of
exceeding 1 inch.
After what appears to be a lull in the weather during the day
on Thursday, another round of heavy rainfall appears likely as a
shortwave impulse moves into the Great Lakes area and upper
level diffluence overspreads the region, producing wide scale
forcing for accent. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025
With surface ridging still in control VFR conditions continue
through this TAF period. Southwesterly winds will be on the
increase after 15z Tue with gusts around 25 kts. Surface heating
and increase in moisture advection will allow for development
of cumulus around 5000 ft.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 2:15 AM EDT---------------
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