JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 4:21 PM EDT510
FXUS63 KJKL 042021
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
421 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather continues through the remainder of today,
with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
- Hazy skies linger from distant wildfire smoke aloft.
- Showers and thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and remain in
the forecast through the upcoming weekend. Some strong storms
are possible Fri and Sat along with the potential for heavy
rains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 421 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
Fans of the recent summer-like pattern will need to soak it up
because today is the last we'll see of it for a bit. High pressure
centered to our east has kept things warm and dry. We've seen
another day of above average temperatures in the upper 80s. Skies
are still hazy from lingering Canadian wildfire smoke but
otherwise, our skies are dotted with a scatted cumulus deck that
has developed as we've entered the heat of the afternoon. As for
tonight, expect it to be fairly similar to last night. A mild
night with lows in the mid to upper 60s, with our more sheltered
valleys radiating out and making it down to the low 60s and
possibly upper 50s. Though that cooling could be slightly hindered
where clouds move in late in the overnight. Patchy fog is once
again expected to develop in the deeper valleys.
The weather pattern shifts going into Thursday, as a broad upper
level trough starts to push out the ridging that had been prominent
over the area until now. Heights continue to fall through the period
as that troughing moves over the area, before flow eventually
flattens some, while an occasional small wave rides through. At
the surface a frontal boundary stretched through the Upper Midwest
and Mississippi Valley will serve as a focus for showers and
storms while slowly making its way south, occasionally reinforced
by the previously mentioned waves of energy aloft. Tomorrow
afternoon, East Kentucky starts to see the first of that rain as
it enters from the northwest. Chances for rain continue through
Thursday night, but peak in the afternoon with diurnal heating.
Thunderstorms are likely to be spotty/cellular in nature. Some of
them could be capable of producing strong, possibly severe, wind
gusts, but this potential is generally limited to a line through
Montgomery to Rowan Counties and north. This area is where the
storms would be closer to the better forcing and have the chance
to access enough shear to be better organized. Our better chance
for severe weather resides in the long-term portion of the
forecast. Highs Thursday will still be warm, in the mid 80s, but
have the potential to be a little cooler in some spots depending
on the exact timing of increasing cloud cover and storms. Thursday
night is expected to be mild with lows in the mid 60s, but
dreary. Chances for showers and storms continue, particularly in
our northwest, and broken to overcast skies will prevail, keeping
any significant ridge-valley temperature splits at bay.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
It's looking increasingly possible that the start of the period
will be beset with MCS activity into the weekend due to a stalled
out frontal boundary in the area with enough upper level support
amid high PW air and favorable winds aloft. The clearing late
Saturday into Sunday looks less certain compared to 24 hours ago -
perhaps delayed by a day. Though another boundary appears to
settle into the area from the northwest on Monday into Tuesday
with more shower and storm chances. Looking at the NBM's PDF - the
weekend is on the cool side of the spread but the values work
back toward the middle near the start the new work week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The 03/12z model suite upper level analysis beginning Thursday
morning shows an ~591 high over the Bahamas with a ridge axis
stretching northward toward Cape Cod. A broad positively-tilted
trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves/disturbances, extends
southwest from an ~533 dam low over the Hudson Bay to off the
Southwest California Coast. The ridge will be breaking down as a
shortwave trough/low, originating from the Gulf of America, lifts
across the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, a weak surface
low will be situated over the Piedmont in the Carolinas. An ~1023
mb surface high pressure lingers between Bermuda and the Outer
Banks with a ridge axis extending west and southwest into the
Southern Appalachians. A nearly stationary cold front is draped
from the St. Lawrence Valley through the Eastern Great Lakes to
just north of the Lower Ohio River and then southwest across the
Ozarks and over the Southern Plains to a developing area of low
pressure over southwest Texas.
The upper level high/ridging to our east will break down on Thursday
as the trough pivots positively. The weak coastal low will
continue to drift north and east as the parent feature is absorbed
into the trough. PWATs will also climb across the eastern
Kentucky Coalfields as the low-level flow veers more westerly.
Lower-resolution guidance blend has trended toward slightly
higher PoPs by Thursday afternoon compared to yesterday's forecast
package(ranging from 30-40% along the KY/VA border up to 60%
north of I-64). The longer range CAMs, NAMNEST and HRW-FV3 suggest
just some isolated to widely scattered deep convection, mainly
north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 corridor, where mid-level
capping is less notable. While the MLCAPE could exceed 1,500 J/kg
across much of the area, rather weak shear (EBWD of 10 to 20 kts)
relegates any activity that materializes to be of a more pulsy
nature (though mid-level dry air could certainly support
localized strong wind gusts originating from the more intense
downdrafts). Any deep convection will diminish with the loss of
heating Thursday evening. However, rain chance are likely to
increase again late Thursday night/early Friday morning on the
nose of a strengthening 850 mb jet oriented up the Ohio River
Valley. The greatest rain threat appears initially over the
Bluegrass near the frontal boundary. Those chances then increase
across the remainder of the area on Friday/Friday night as
surface low pressure rides northeast along the aforementioned
frontal zone, passing north of the Ohio River and then dragging a
cold front cross the forecast area Friday night into the first
half of Saturday. The potential for substantial cloud cover and
ongoing showers into the morning hours on Friday leaves overall
diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front uncertain. In
scenarios where greater heating is realized, shear will be semi-
favorable for organized storm structures. Additionally, PWATs
climbing to near 1.8 inches (or the 90th percentile relative to
climatology) and relatively thin CAPE profiles favor heavy rain
rainfall rates with stronger cores. Once the front passes,
leftover showers and drizzle are likely to linger into Saturday
night. Looking ahead to the new week, blended guidance has trended
drier for Sunday over eastern Kentucky as the trough axis moves in
aloft. Renewed cyclogenesis does occur along the cold frontal
boundary well to our south over the Gulf Coast states. This could
keep substantial cloud cover over our area, but any rainfall
appears increasingly minimal. Should current model trends
continue, Sunday's forecast could turn notably drier. Heading
into Monday and Tuesday, there is a general model consensus in an
potent northern stream 500H low/trough diving into the Great Lakes
and dropping a reinforcing cold front into the Ohio Valley with a
renewed shower/thunderstorm threat, though specifics remain fuzzy
at this early juncture.
In sensible terms, expect seasonably warm temperatures on
Thursday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s at most
locations. A few showers are possible, especially during the
afternoon and evening, and the strongest activity could produce
lightning and gusty winds. Rain chances range from 30 to 40
percent near Virginia to near 60 percent north of I-64. Once
diurnal convection diminishes, variable cloud cover is expected
Thursday night with temperatures falling back into the lower to
middle 60s. After a late evening lull, rain chances begin to
increase again toward sunrise. On Friday, showers and
thunderstorms gradually increase from northwest to southeast
through the day with chances peaking (80%+) Friday evening into
early Saturday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75 to
1.50 inches can expected, with isolated higher amounts possible.
Friday's high temperatures are forecast to range from the lower to
middle 80s with lows ranging in the 60s. Looking ahead to the
weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances slowly diminish from
north-to-south on Saturday/Saturday night, leaving Sunday favored
to be the drier of the two weekend days. Temperatures will trend
cooler as well with highs expected in the upper 70s to near 80
while lows dip back into the mid 50s to near 60. Rain chances and
sky cover increase again Monday into Monday night before dropping
off for Tuesday. Forecast high temperatures warm mainly into the
lower 80s for most on Monday, then dip back into upper 70s for
many locations on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
Overall mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
A growing cumulus deck can be observed on satellite and range from
around 4k to 6k feet. This deck is expected to stay present
through the afternoon. Some fog is possible tonight in the typical
valley locations. Most sites are expected to avoid the fog, but
there is a small chance for SME to briefly dip to MVFR levels.
However, confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF.
Winds tonight will become light and variable. Tomorrow, rain
begins to enter the forecast near the end of the TAF period as a
system approaches from the northwest. The main site that could see
rain reach it by 18z tomorrow is SYM, and a PROB30 group was
added. Winds tomorrow will largely be either out of the S/SW or
variable and less than 5 kts, though some higher gusts are not out
of the question if an area sees a shower or storm.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...HAS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 4:21 PM EDT---------------
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