IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 2, 1:29 AM EDT124
FXUS63 KIWX 020529
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Tuesday, with increasingly warmer temperatures over
the next few days. Highs in the upper 80s by Tuesday.
- Canadian wildfire smoke will remain elevated over the area
through at least Monday. Minimal, if any, impacts to air
quality at the ground as smoke should remain aloft.
- Chances for rain/storms possible late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly
for NW Indiana and SW Lower Michigan. Better chances for
rain/storms area-wide on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Severe weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Northerly winds persist today and have brought several plumes of
wildfire smoke down across the Great Lakes region in the past 24
hours. Visible satellite imagery shows wildfire smoke aloft over
much of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. The sky will likely
appear hazy or obscured at times, however, the smoke should largely
remain aloft rather than mix down towards the surface. This smoke
will persist through Monday or Tuesday as high pressure builds
across the area. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP models show the
highest concentrations of smoke aloft between Monday afternoon and
early Tuesday morning as a plume advects in from the Upper Midwest.
Happy start to meteorological summer! June begins with a warm up to
start the new work week. Dry conditions are expected through much of
the day Tuesday as aforementioned high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes region. A strengthening upper level ridge and
southwesterly WAA on Monday and Tuesday will help boost high
temperatures into 80s. Expect highs in the low 80s Monday and into
the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. With moisture transport
lagging until midweek, dewpoints will be low enough that the
humidity will remain at comfortable levels despite the increase
in air temperatures.
As the upper level ridge shifts eastward and an area of low pressure
traverses the central Plains up into the Midwest, a series of
shortwaves will move through from Wednesday through Saturday,
setting the stage for a more active end to the work week. Southwest
winds will funnel in moisture from the Gulf by mid to late week,
which will allow for an active weather pattern to return. The next
chance for rain and storms arrives on Tuesday evening into Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. Models depict this front stalling
somewhere around our forecast area early Wednesday as we are on
the western periphery of the ridge. While rain chances are in
the forecast late Tuesday through Thursday, it's possible
precipitation remains confined to just far NW Indiana and SW
Lower Michigan in the early part of this time period until the
cold front moves through later on Wednesday. Right now, the best
chances for rain/storms area-wide appears to be Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. Severe weather is not expected,
although periods of heavy rain will be possible. WPC has a
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on both Wednesday and
Thursday.
Seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
will return to finish out the work week. Highs near 80 degrees for
the upcoming weekend with low, but non-zero, chances for rain/storms.
Confidence is low due to a lack of model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
With surface ridging in place, VFR conditions will prevail
through and beyond the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 2, 1:29 AM EDT---------------
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