MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 6:45 AM CDT ...New Aviation...510
FXUS64 KMOB 301145
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A weak cold front moves south over the forecast area late today
into tonight in response to an upper level shortwave moving
through a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus. The airmass
over the Southeast has dried out after the previous day's
convection, with precipitable h20 values between 1.3" and 1.5".
This will limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered ahead of and
with today's passing front. Behind this front, an even drier
airmass moves south over the Southeast, with precipitable h20
levels dropping to 0.6 to 0.8" by Saturday afternoon. There is a
bit of a rebound in moisture levels Saturday night, to 0.8" to
near 1.0".
With little change in upper dynamics, the change in moisture levels
will be the main driver of temperature change. Daytime high
temperatures see a bit of a drop, from mid 80s to around 90 today,
to mid to upper 80s Saturday. Low temperatures see the biggest
change, from mid 60s to around 70 expected early this morning, to
upper 50s well north of Highway 84 to mid to upper 60s south of
I-10 tonight, and low to mid 60s Saturday night (upper 60s to
around 70 along the coast).
A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Sunday.
/16
A large upper trof over the eastern states on Sunday gradually
moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday while another
upper trof evolves over the western and central states. A weak
surface trof looks to meander over the forecast area Sunday into
Monday, then a light southeasterly flow is established on Tuesday
and gradually becomes southerly through Thursday. There looks to
be about a 10% chance for precipitation on Sunday with the weak
surface trof in the area, but have opted to keep mention of pops
out of the forecast for now. Have continued with a dry forecast
for Monday as an upper ridge begins to build into the region and
will act to suppress any convective development. The upper ridge
shifts across the area and weakens on Tuesday, then the
western/central states upper trof is expected to mostly eject off
across the interior eastern states, except for leaving a well
defined shortwave trof which advances across the southern/central
Plains on Thursday. This brings a cold front from the Plains which
looks to weaken before nearing the forecast area on Thursday.
With the southerly surface flow becoming established and the
convective environment becoming more favorable, will have mostly
chance pops for Wednesday, then chance to likely pops follow for
Thursday as the weak frontal boundary nears the area. A low risk
of rip currents is expected to continue through Tuesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A weak cold front approaching from the north moves through the
area from late morning into the early evening hours, with
southwest to west winds 5-10 knots becoming northwesterly in the
wake of the front. Patchy fog with VLIFR-IFR conditions present
mainly over interior areas dissipates by around 14Z, with
otherwise VFR conditions prevailing during the remainder of the
period except for MVFR conditions with isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon showers and storms. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Light to moderate southwest to westerly flow will become offshore
through the weekend behind a front crossing area waters Friday
night. A surfaced ridge building west over the northern Gulf Coast
Tuesday will bring a return of onshore flow to area waters mid
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 89 63 85 64 87 67 87 69 / 30 20 0 0 10 10 10 10
Pensacola 89 67 85 69 85 71 86 72 / 30 20 0 0 10 10 10 10
Destin 88 70 86 71 87 73 87 74 / 30 30 0 0 0 10 10 0
Evergreen 88 60 85 59 87 63 90 64 / 50 10 0 0 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 85 59 84 60 85 63 88 65 / 40 0 0 0 10 0 10 10
Camden 84 58 82 61 85 62 87 65 / 50 10 0 0 10 0 0 0
Crestview 90 62 87 61 89 64 90 65 / 40 20 0 0 10 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 6:45 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
