JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:45 PM EDT952
FXUS63 KJKL 311745
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be possibilities for showers and/or thunderstorms at
times through Sunday as a cold front moves slowly south across
the area. These showers and storms will become increasingly
confined to the Tennessee border area with time as the weekend
progresses.
- Below normal temperatures, especially for highs, linger into the
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to climb above normal
early next week.
- Though the timing is somewhat uncertain this far out, shower
and thunderstorm chances appear poised to return for the later
part of next week into next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A few weak returns are rapidly moving southeast on local radar,
but nothing is sustaining itself and becoming significant.
Forecast sounding suggest that lower 70s Temperatures will be
needed to really get convection going. This should happen soon.
Temperatures near and above 500 mb should be slowly warming this
afternoon as the northeast CONUS trough begins to pull out of our
area. This will give the best opportunity for strong convection
early to mid afternoon. Strong mid level winds and dry air aloft
suggest there is a wind threat even with meager instability. Low
freezing levels (mostly 8-9K ft AGL) will make it easier to get
hail, but modest instability would make it more difficult to reach
the severe (1") criterion.
UPDATE Issued at 924 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
Have updated to add cooler low temps for valleys back into the
forecast through Wednesday night.
UPDATE Issued at 100 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
Additional spotty showers can be expected through the early
morning hours as a weak shortwave trough passes through eastern
Kentucky ahead of a secondary cold front, which will sag into the
area during the day on Saturday. Between the trough and the
secondary cold front, RAP and HRRR guidance indicates that smoke
from Canadian wildfires will spread southeast across our CWA.
Near-surface smoke concentrations are not modeled to be overly
high, but will still likely cause hazy skies on Saturday,
warranting the addition of haze to the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms are diving southeast this evening,
primarily over portions of the Licking River Valley. This activity
is expected to continue sinking southeast and diminish with time.
Otherwise, expect variable cloud cover and some fog developing in
the favored river valleys overnight. There will be renewed chances
for showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm from the north well
after midnight with the approach of a secondary cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
Though a surface cold front has moved east of eastern Kentucky as of
mid-afternoon, an energetic and deep upper trough/low remains over
the region and will continue to trigger showers and possibly a few
storms through the late afternoon or early evening, though the
severe weather threat ended with the cold frontal passage earlier
today.
Shower activity generally diminishes overall through the night,
though another energetic shortwave arrives overnight and may trigger
a relatively focused area of showers along a surface front diving
south from the Lower Great Lakes region. This cold front stalls over
the area Saturday as its orientation will align with the mean flow.
Weak conditional instability will exist with modest surface heating
to promote a Marginal Risk for severe storms over far eastern KY,
with damaging winds and large hail the severe threats.
This front likely lingers over our southwestern counties into
Saturday night, and may continue to produce at least isolated
showers through the night mainly southwest of the US Highway 421
corridor. Meanwhile, to the north of this cold front a much cooler
and drier air mass will settle over the northeastern half of the
forecast area, with lows likely to fall well into the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
The period will begin with a deep, closed, stacked low pressure
system over southern Quebec, and an upper trough extending southward
over the eastern CONUS. A shortwave trough rotating around the large
scale trough is expected to be near AR early Sunday morning. Upper
ridging will be to the west, generally over the plains. A stalled
frontal boundary should be to our southwest, but exactly how far to
the southwest is in question. This regime will be bringing below
normal temperatures for much of the far eastern CONUS to finish the
weekend, including eastern KY. The shortwave trough may aid in
bringing showers to our southern counties on Sunday, if the frontal
boundary were to be relatively close. The GFS paints this scenario,
while the NAM and ECMWF are further southwest with the front and are
drier. Have only gone with slight chance POP for Sunday in our
southern counties.
The low over Quebec will weaken and a messy upper trough will
take shape over the western CONUS early in the week. This will
shift the upper level pattern eastward, with upper level ridging
forecast to approach our area from the west on Monday and pass
over on Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the region on Monday
should also leave to the east on Tuesday. The frontal boundary
currently to our west is now expected to dissolve in the latest
model runs. This scenario will allow for dry weather here both
Monday and Tuesday, with ample sunshine. Warming temperatures will
result, also aided by warm air advection once the surface high
slips to our east.
Models show a piece of the western upper trough lifting northeast as
a shortwave at midweek, supporting a surface low moving northeast
across the Midwest with a trailing cold front. Models are still not
in good agreement in how this transpires, but are overall slower
with the progress of the cold front toward our area. Based on this,
the forecast is now dry on Wednesday. After this, the forecast is
still rather broadbrushed due to a lack of confidence in the frontal
timing, with a model blend suggesting the most likely time for rain
to be Thursday night or Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the TAF period, with a
couple of possible exceptions. A slow-moving cold front will act
to focus scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across
eastern Kentucky this afternoon before diminishing into the
evening. Coverage of this activity still remains in question, so
any mention of precipitation was relegated to VCSH or PROB30
groups. Any mention of thunder was removed as probabilities are
too low to warrant mention at any one terminal.
Fog is likely to be fairly widespread in the river valleys
tonight, with the highest confidence at KLOZ with regards to
possible terminals impacted. Thus, added LIFR/VLIFR conditions
near and shortly after daybreak Sunday morning for a few hours.
Have left any other reductions in categories out of the TAFs until
confidence improves that fog is likely.
Northwest winds are beginning to mix down and will continue
through ~22z before beginning to gradually diminish into the early
evening. Max gusts of up to 20-25 kt are likely at the terminals.
These winds will advect smoke from Canadian wildfires through the
region, but it is not currently expected to lead to flight
category reductions. Winds will quickly subside by mid to late
evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:45 PM EDT---------------
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