IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 1:34 AM EDT733
FXUS63 KIND 300534
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
134 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers this evening, mainly across southwest Indiana
- Additional rain and storm chances late Thursday into Friday
- Drier and warmer weather returns early next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
The current forecast remains in good shape with only minor
adjustments needed. Latest KIND radar imagery and surface
observations show light rain is beginning to approach far SW
portions of central Indiana. This precipitation is associated with a
developing low pressure system which is expected to promote more
widespread rain over southern portions of the area later tonight.
Further north, rain chances quickly decrease due to less moisture
and forcing for ascent.
Generally the greatest rain chances are near or south of the I-70
corridor. Light showers will be possible across southwestern
counties over the next few hours before more widespread
precipitation begins to move in around midnight or shortly after.
Expect extensive cloud cover and precipitation to greatly limit
diurnal cooling, keeping overnight temperatures in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
Tonight and Friday.
The most active period of weather over the next 7 days is expected
to be tonight into early tomorrow as a low pressure system brings
moderate to locally heavy rain to southern Indiana and Kentucky.
Models have a pretty good handle on the synoptic aspects of the
system with a broad upper level trough tracking through the Ohio
Valley with a surface low undergoing cyclogenesis as it moves from
southern Missouri into Kentucky. With the southern portions of the
forecast area on the northern fringe of the low both at the surface
and up to around 700mb, the heaviest rain will stay south of the
forecast area with only the southern counties likely to get clipped
with heavier rain.
Isentropic lift is more parallel across south central Indiana with
further lowers the threat for heavier rain. This will limit the
heavier convective showers and storms to the Ohio River Valley with
lighter to moderate rain for the southern counties. Total QPF should
still get to around a half inch to perhaps as high as an inch south
of I-70 but with the limiting factors would lean towards the lower
end of model guidance.
Colder air will move in aloft during the daytime hours on Friday
with the potential for some weak instability due to the strength of
the cold air which could bring a few showers to the southeastern
counties during the afternoon hours. There will also be a weak
secondary low on the backend of the exiting system which could bring
additional showers and storms to the northern counties during the
evening and early overnight hours, but coverage should be fairly
minimal with only weak forcing.
Temperatures tomorrow will end up similar to today with highs in the
low to mid 70s with the difference being the warmer temperatures
will be across the northwestern counties where more plentiful sun is
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
Friday Night Through Sunday.
A few showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours Friday
into Saturday with continued low rain chances into the early weekend
as the upper level pattern remains sharply northwesterly with weak
impulses moving southeast through the jetstream. These showers will
likely be falling out of an elevated cloud deck with some dry air
near the surface which will further help to limit coverage. With the
northwesterly flow but at the surface and aloft, temperatures will
remain mild with highs in the 70s.
Monday Through Thursday.
The upper level ridge across the Central US states will begin to
shift eastward Monday into Tuesday which will bring a fairly
significant pattern shift to central Indiana with a return to
southerly surface flow and much warmer temperatures through the
middle of the week. Highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s are
possible by Wednesday but dew points will likely only be in the
upper 50s to low 60s which will limit the overall heat risk.
Another low pressure system looks likely Thursday into Friday but
models and ensembles have significant differences on the track of
the low and its resultant impacts to the axis of heavier
precipitation. With a fairly unstable environment out ahead of the
low, severe weather will be possible depending on the final timing
of the low and whether it moves through during a diurnal maximum.
There are some model showing signals for greater than 2-3 inches of
rain but for now those look to be the outliers, but will have to
monitor for any potential flooding concerns.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025
Impacts:
- Widespread rain after 06Z for all sites except LAF
- MVFR cigs 08Z to 15Z at BMG, low chance at HUF/IND
Discussion:
Coverage of rain will increase over the next few hours as a low
pressure system moves through with greatest coverage across
southern Indiana. Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR at times near
BMG between 08-15Z with lesser chances at the other terminals.
MVFR or worse visibilities are also possible once the heavier rain
moves in, especially near BMG. Rain will then move out Friday
morning with ceilings lifting.
Some brief IFR or TSRA is possible but unlikely. Winds will remain
northerly to northwesterly through the TAF period. Speeds will
remain light through the overnight before increasing to around 08-
13 kts during the day Friday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 1:34 AM EDT---------------
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