MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 6:38 PM CDT ...New Aviation...122
FXUS64 KMOB 142338
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Now through Thursday night...
14.12Z upper air maps show a trough axis at high levels positioned
over the southeast US, with a high level northwest flow in place
over the local area. Embedded in this flow is a very subtle
disturbance bringing a patch of clouds east southeast across the
interior this afternoon and very isolated weak returns on radar in
the form of a few isolated showers or sprinkles moving across the
Hwy 84 corridor. Considering the coverage and the presence of
deep layer dry air in place, rain chances less than 10%. Any
amounts will be brief and light up that way. For the remainder of
the near term, upper ridging over the Gulf amplifies with the
northern extent of the ridge to be aligned over the forecast area.
Deep layer dry air to be in place. Surface high remains
positioned to our east, favoring a persistence in south to
southwest flow and well above normal low temperatures tonight and
Thursday night. Highs lift into the upper 80's/lower 90's over the
interior Thursday and some 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Along the
coast, highs tempered somewhat in the lower half of the 80's by
flow off the Gulf will be closer to normal for mid May.
A Moderate Risk of rip currents holds through the period, although
a brief period of HIGH Risk cannot be ruled out for late
tonight/into Thursday morning. /10
Friday through Wednesday...
Heat Indices around 100 expected most days with strong to severe
storms possible Saturday and Sunday, then again Wednesday.
An upper level ridge stretching north from upper level high
pressure over the Gulf sees some flattening over the Southeast
Friday into Saturday as a series of upper level shortwaves move
east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast. A weak
cold front moves south over the Southeast Friday into Saturday in
response to the passing energy, stalling near the I-20 corridor.
Surface high pressure located over the northeastern Gulf keeps the
Southeast under southerly flow, and with the moisture pooling
near the advancing front (read along and north of Highway 84),
precipitable h20 values rise into the 1.5"-1.8" range over the
northern third of the forecast area for the weekend. Upper
subsidence will help to counter balance the instability and bring
isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to areas along and north of Highway 84. The boundary
is its strongest Saturday, with weakening on Sunday as the
southerly flow begins to wash the boundary out Sunday into the
coming week, with increasing subsidence as the upper ridge begins
to build north over the Mississippi River. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again possible along and north of
Highway 84. A strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the
Southern Plains to Southeast late Tuesday through Wednesday, with
another weak front moving across the forecast area late Wednesday
through Wednesday night, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area mid week.
With the weekend and middle of the week events, there is a risk of
strong to severe storms. MLCapes topping out in the 2000-2500J/kg
range over the northern third of the forecast area and north
Saturday, and along the northern border Sunday, combined with
DCapes in the 800-1100J/kg range and Effective Bulk Shear near
40kts, damaging winds are possible from more organized storms,
especially in the afternoon and evening. Sunday's numbers are
lower, but still high enough for a few worrisome storms to form.
Ahead of the approaching cold front Wednesday, MLCapes around
1500J/kg, DCapes of 700-100J/kg and Effective Bulk Shear around
40kts are present. Instability is meh at this point, but the other
parameters may bring a few strong to marginally severe storms.
Will need to monitor, especially this weekend, with outdoor
events.
Looking at temperatures, upper 80s well inland form the coast to
low 90s, mid 80s near the coast are expected each day. With
moisture levels on the increase, Heat Indices topping out in the
95-105 degree range are expected each day. Low temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s inland from the coast, mid 70s along the
coast are expected each night through the Extended.
A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this weekend decreases in the
coming week as onshore swell and the tidal cycle decreases. /16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Areas of MVFR ceilings will develop over southeast Mississippi
and southwest Alabama late tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through 16/00Z. Southerly to southwesterly
winds around 8-13 knots with frequent gusts to near 20 knots will
continue through the period. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the
period. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 68 87 71 88 71 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
Pensacola 73 85 74 85 75 87 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 74 84 75 85 75 86 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 64 92 67 93 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 20
Waynesboro 65 92 68 93 70 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 30 10 20
Camden 65 90 68 92 70 91 69 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 30 20 30
Crestview 66 89 67 91 68 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 6:38 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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