LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 12:19 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...186
FXUS64 KLIX 111719
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1219 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
Upper low over western Louisiana early this morning with ridging
off the Atlantic Coast and over the southern Rockies. At the
surface, weak low pressure was centered near Jackson, with an
occluded front to our north and east. Skies were mostly cloudy
across the area at 3 AM CDT with temperatures generally in the
lower and middle 60s, although there were a few upper 50s across
northern portions of the area. Radar indicated there might be a
few sprinkles near Houma, but overall, the nighttime hours have
been dry.
The upper low isn't going much of anywhere through about midday
Monday, before lifting northeast as a shortwave moves out of the
southern Rockies.
Today and Monday are going to look pretty similar across the area,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected both days, mainly during the afternoon hours, and
won't rule out a rumble of thunder or two, although that appears
to be a fairly low end threat for most of the area. By no means is
either day expected to be a washout, but outdoor activities could
get briefly interrupted. Rain amounts for most of the area over
the next 2 days might not exceed one quarter inch. Highs should
generally be in the 75 to 80 degree range both days, with
overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
The upper low will be departing on Tuesday, moving through eastern
Tennessee during the day, and off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday.
Upper ridging will be building across the Gulf for Wednesday
through Friday, before a shortwave moves across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. By that time, there are some
disagreements between the ECMWF and GFS as to any impacts for the
local area. No significant precipitation is expected for Tuesday
through at least Friday. The ECMWF operational run from 00z is a
little more aggressive on moving a frontal boundary close enough
to the area to allow the development of scattered showers/storms.
Considering the differences between models, will let the NBM
numbers drive the forecast that far out for now.
Regarding temperatures...starting Tuesday...Welcome to Summer.
Highs will be near normal on Tuesday, in the mid 80s, but by
Thursday, much of the area is likely to see their first 90 degree
high temperatures if they haven't already. Upper 80s to lower 90s
will be common for Thursday through the weekend if the frontal
boundary remains north of the area. This would be about 5-7
degrees above normal for highs. While the lows Tuesday morning
will likely be a couple degrees below normal, after that point,
lows are likely to run 5-10 degrees above normal for the rest of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
A cutoff low is still centered over Central Louisiana. Visible
satellite shows a mix of scattered MVFR cloud decks over most of
SELA and coastal MS, but with more overcast conditions just west of
KBTR and closer to the upper low center. Though ceilings lift to VFR
this afternoon, probably won't be much higher than 3kft. Will
continue with use of PROB30 to cover aftn TSRA threat but did shift
start time back a couple hours based on near term radar trends. Most
precipitation should end by around 02z. Ceilings will lower again
after 06z with most terminals at MVFR. Much of Monday will be a
repeat of today's conditions, but we may finally see some overall
improvement by Monday evening as the upper low pulls away from the
area and the lower levels begin to dry out.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
With the upper low remaining around the area for the next 36 hours
or so, wind directions could be rather variable, but in any case,
sustained wind speeds are expected to generally remain below 15
knots. From Tuesday night onward, winds will primarily be south to
southwesterly...an onshore wind for most areas, with most wind
speeds in the 10 to 15 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 76 59 85 / 20 30 0 10
BTR 58 79 62 87 / 20 20 0 0
ASD 60 79 62 86 / 20 30 0 10
MSY 62 79 65 86 / 20 30 0 0
GPT 63 78 63 84 / 40 50 10 10
PQL 61 79 62 84 / 40 60 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 12:19 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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