BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 5:31 AM EDT890
FXUS61 KBOX 110931
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
531 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for today through tomorrow, bringing
pleasant weather to the region. Rain chances increase again mid-
week as a weak disturbance approaches from the west.
Temperatures stay mild through midweek before warming into the
80s towards the end of the week with rising dewpoints.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Point:
* Sunny and breezy. Highs near 70F
Today:
Rising heights today as an upper-level ridge builds from the
west. With subsidence aloft and high-pressure building in from
the Great Lakes, skies will remain clear today. A dry cold front
moves through this morning, keeping highs in the mid-60s to low
70s despite the sunshine. Winds become gusty again from the NW
at 20-25 mph as CAA promotes mixing to 900mb.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Points
* Cold Tonight. Lows in the 30s
* Sunny and warmer Monday. Highs in mid 70s.
Tonight:
High pressure continues to build in tonight, allowing skies to
remain clear. Winds will diminish after sunset as CAA weakens
and the boundary layer decouples. This will set up a rather
chilly night under good radiation-cooling conditions. Overnight
lows will drop into the mid-30s, away from urban areas.
Tomorrow:
The upper-level ridge axis shifts over the region with high
pressure beginning to exit the region and move to the SE. 850mb
temperatures warm from 4C to 12C with westerly mid-level flow.
High temperatures warm into the mid-70s, away from the south
coast. Southerly surface flow near the south coast will keep
temps in the mid to upper 60s. Skies start mostly sunny, but
high clouds begin to filter in late in the day as weak shortwave
energy approaches from the south side of the ridge axis.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points
* Staying mild this week with highs in the mid 70s
* Rain chances increase mid week, but not looking like a
washout
* Turning warmer Friday into the weekend with highs near 80F
Patterns become more active as a cut-off trough slowly exits
the Ohio River Valley while the ridge axis moves north of the
region. Tuesday looks mainly dry at this time but ultimately
depends on where the ridge axis stalls out. The upper-level
trough begins to weaken as it approaches the northeast for Wed
to Thur, increasing precip chances. With weak forcing, not
expecting another heavy rain event like the two we saw last
week. A stronger frontal system is possible towards the end of
the week into next weekend. High temperatures this week should
remain in the mid-70s through Thursday, then warming into the
low 80s for Friday into next weekend. Dewpoints gradually rise
through the week from the upper 40s Monday to the low 60s by
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Sunday and Sunday night...High Confidence.
Any fog that formed overnight will burn off quickly with
sunrise. Otherwise VFR. NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots develop
by this afternoon. These winds will diminish tonight becoming
light/calm.
Monday...High Confidence
VFR. Winds flip south, gusting 15-20 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
VFR. Gusty NW winds at 20-25 knots
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
VFR. Gusty NW winds at 15-20 knots.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday...High Confidence.
High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes Sun and
over the waters Sun night. While we should have some nearshore
NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots during the day Sunday with good
mixing over the land...winds and seas will generally remain
below small craft advisory thresholds.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 5:31 AM EDT----------------
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