BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 7:05 PM EDT053
FXUS61 KBOX 102305
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
705 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Skies clear tonight as drier air works into the region from the
northwest. A ridge of high pressure will result in very pleasant
May weather for us Sunday through Tuesday with mild days and
cool nights. By the second half of the week...a disturbance
approaching from the west will result in the risk for a few
showers at times but not expecting a washout. It will also
become a bit more humid for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Clearing tonight with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s
Details...
The anomalous closed upper level low that has brought heavy rain
and pockets of River Flooding over the last 24-48 hours will
lift into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A much drier
northwest flow of air works into the region tonight. As skies
become mostly clear...overnight low temps will drop into the 40s
to the lower 50s. We can not rule out some localized patchy
ground fog developing in the typically prone low-lying spots
late with the wet ground...but if it develops will be shallow
and very localized.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Sunshine returns Sunday with highs middle 60s-lower 70s
* Dry/cool Sun night lows in the 30s/40s with patchy frost
Details...
Sunday...
High pressure begins to build eastward from the Great Lakes on
Sunday as low pressure continues to lift well north of the
Canadian Maritimes. The result will be a dry/northwest flow of
very pleasant airmass to close out the weekend. Plenty of
sunshine should result in very pleasant highs in the middle 60s
to the lower 70s with just a bit of a northwest breeze.
Sunday night...
High pressure builds across southern New England Sun night. This
will set the stage for mainly clear skies, light-calm winds and
a good night of radiational cooling. Given the dry airmass in
place...thinking overnight low temps will bottom out in the 30s
across the normally coolest outlying locations to the 40s in
the urban centers. Patches of frost will be possible too in the
typically prone coolest low-lying locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Mainly dry/pleasant Mon & Tue with highs mostly in the 70s at
least away from the immediate coast/localized sea breezes
* A few showers at times for the second half of the week along
with a bit more humidity, but not expecting a washout
Details...
Upper level ridging will result in dry and pleasant weather Mon
and Tue. There is a low risk for a spot shower or two into
western MA/CT on Tue on the edge of the returning moisture
axis...but overall thinking mainly dry weather with ridging
still in control. A better chance for a few showers at times
will exist for the second half of the work week. This as the
next shortwave trough approaches from the west. That being
said...not expecting a washout as the shortwave energy will
dampen out as it runs into the left over upper level ridging in
our region. So a few showers will be possible at times for the
second half of the week...but not a washout with lots of dry
weather too.
High temps will be mainly in the 70s for the upcoming week at
least away from the immediate coast/localized sea breezes where
it may be cooler at times. It will be turning a bit more humid
though for the second half of the week as some low level
moisture begins to return.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds should diminish to 10 knots or less overnight and
shift to mainly a W direction. We can not rule out some
localized patchy ground fog late with the wet ground in a few of
the typical low-lying spots...but certainly nothing widespread
or long-lived.
Sunday and Sunday night...High Confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots develop by Sun afternoon.
These winds will diminish Sun night becoming light/calm.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday and Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Monday...High Confidence.
Lingering small craft NW wind gusts and seas will diminish below
criteria during the evening hours as the closed upper level low
lifts into the Maritimes. High pressure will build eastward from
the Great Lakes Sun and over the waters Sun night. While we
should have some nearshore NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots during
the day Sunday with good mixing over the land...winds and seas
will generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.
Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ230>237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 7:05 PM EDT----------------
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