CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 7:29 PM EDT371
FXUS61 KCLE 132329
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
729 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to lift into the region tonight
before opening into an upper trough on Wednesday. The trough will
lift northeast of the local area Wednesday night, allowing an upper
ridge to cross the region on Thursday. A warm front will cross the
area Thursday evening, followed by a cold front late Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will lift into the region this evening and churn
across the local area overnight before opening into an upper trough
by Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
will continue to lift northwest into the region this afternoon into
this evening before slowly diminishing after sunset tonight.
Isolated sub-severe gusty winds are possible in wet downbursts
thanks to the moist air mass through early evening. Showers/storms
may train, which could result in an isolated (generally nuisance)
flooding risk.
Maintained slight chance to low end chance PoPs (around 20 to 30
percent) late tonight into Wednesday morning, but it's possible that
most locations remain dry until another round of showers and
possibly thunderstorms lifts into the region Wednesday afternoon.
Moist lower levels and relatively light surface winds could allow
patchy fog to develop at inland locations in Ohio zones tonight. The
severe weather/flooding risk remains low Wednesday, but there may be
a scenario like today where the high moisture content may result in
wet (sub-severe) downbursts and training precip. PoPs will taper off
with the loss of diurnal instability Wednesday evening with only
slight chance PoPs continuing into the overnight as the upper trough
lifts northeast into the NE CONUS and a ridge begins to build in
from the west.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees tonight
and Wednesday night with temps most likely reaching the lower 70s on
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough finally departs to the east on Thursday with
low chances of rain, mainly in the east during the morning.
Southwesterly flow and warm advection will increase through the
day with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in the west to
mid 70s in the east. A capping inversion is also expected to
develop during the afternoon with an EML above it. An upper
level trough with mid-level dry-slot lifts into the western
Great Lakes on Thursday with convection possibly firing Thursday
evening as the associated surface trough reaches NW Ohio. A
plume of deeper moisture may approach from the southwest during
the evening, helping to erode the cap. MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg or
more is forecast across Indiana and into NW Ohio indicating
that storms could be strong if they develop. Bulk shear of 30-40
knots is also expected during the evening but will shift east
and decrease through the overnight hours. Considerable
uncertainty remains in storm initiation and evolution on
Thursday night but will need to monitor for severe weather if
thunderstorms do develop. The Storm Prediction Center has
included a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in NW Ohio with a
Marginal Risk farther east. Will keep fairly high pops of 50-70
percent in the forecast for Thursday night.
Precipitation is expected to exit to the east on Friday with
perhaps a chance of thunderstorms in the south during the
afternoon. Another piece of energy digs into the upper trough to
our west on Friday then rapidly moves east across Ohio on
Friday night. This will bring another good chance of rain Friday
night across the southern counties. There is some potential for
strong storms again with moderate instability and favorable
shear but could also miss us to the south. Temperatures will be
well above normal in the low 80s again on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will exit to the east on Saturday morning with
conditions drying out over the weekend as high pressure builds
south into the Great Lakes region. By Sunday temperatures will
be in the mid 60s in NW Pennsylvania to low 70s in Ohio with
lower humidity. Early next week is expected to start off dry
with a ridge building overhead on Tuesday. Will need to watch
for energy and a chance of thunderstorms to arrive ahead of the
ridge on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mostly VFR conditions are observed, with some patchy MVFR with
ceilings. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to the
west, though should diminish over the next few hours, with a few
isolated rain showers possible at times early tonight. Overcast
skies with widespread MVFR should develop tonight, lasting
through the morning hours. IFR and lower may develop in
Northwest Ohio, with ceilings as low as 300 ft possible there.
Condition improve to VFR with mid-level scattered clouds
Wednesday afternoon. Additional development of scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as
well. Added a prob30 for all TAF sites except KERI to start as
limited predictability of thunderstorms coverage/timing is
expected.
Southeast winds 6 to 10 knots tonight become south during the
day Wednesday.
Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
East to southeast flow of 10-15 knots will continue on Lake Erie
into Thursday as a trough of weak low pressure slowly lifts
north through the Ohio Valley. The trough will weaken Wednesday
night with a warm front lifting north across Lake Erie Thursday
night. Some stronger thunderstorms may accompany the front
Thursday night. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots will develop
Thursday with 10-20 knots on Friday and Saturday. There is some
chance of needing a Small Craft Advisory on the east half of
Lake Erie on Saturday. Winds will shift to westerly Sunday then
to the north on Sunday as high pressure builds south into the
Great Lakes Region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15/Saunders
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 7:29 PM EDT---------------
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