JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 5:35 PM EDT703
FXUS63 KJKL 132135
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
535 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower/storm chances linger for much of this week and through
the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
- We are watching the potential for strong to severe organized
thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.
- Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through Wed, then
moderate to about 10 degrees above normal on Thu and Fri - back
closer to normal from Sat through Tue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
Current surface analysis from across the CONUS shows a decaying
surface boundary moving northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Surface high pressure is parked over the Central Plains with several
perturbations moving through the Great Basin and Rockies. Locally,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the CWA with
temperatures in the upper-60s to lower-70s.
Through the afternoon and evening, these showers and storms will
persist but once solar radiation and instability building shuts off;
the showers and storms will begin to dissipate. Through the
overnight into Wednesday, the parent trough and upper-level closed
circulation, that's responsible for the showers, will begin to lift
to the northeast as height rises build overhead from upper-level
ridging over Texas. However, the upper-level circulation will still
be close enough to the area for Wednesday that the threat for
showers and storms will exist for Wednesday afternoon and evening
before surface high pressure arrives from the southwest. Surface
high pressure builds in for late Wednesday night and will persist
through the remainder of the period.
Overall, the forecast period is progged start as a wet and stormy
period but will finish on the dry side as surface high pressure
returns. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid-70s today
with overnight lows only falling to the upper-50s. Highs for
Wednesday are expected to be slightly warmer with values in the mid
to upper-70s with a few lower-80s across the Cumberland Plateau with
overnight lows dropping into the low to mid-60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 535 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft for the bulk of the long term portion
of the forecast. They all depict the exiting of a weakening trough
over the eastern Ohio Valley on Thursday while the system
progresses to the northeast and out of the picture through the
rest of the week. This is upstream of ridging expanding over the
central Gulf Coast states through Friday. The sharp trough is
still on track to pivot from the Northern Plains into, and
through, the Upper Midwest with the majority of model differences
for the period. The GFS suite remains quicker, stronger, and
further northwest with the core of this trough than the ECMWF's
operational and ensemble runs. As this large wave passes it will
bring 5h height falls to Kentucky along with a brush by of its mid
level energy late Thursday into Friday and again with another
impulse passing west to east late Friday into Saturday morning.
For the weekend, broad troughing will hold forth over the Upper
Midwest, northern Great Lakes, and south central Canada while
ridging is located over the Gulf of America. Between these
dominant features, mid-level zonal flow will work west to east
through Kentucky while carrying periodic packets of energy. Toward
the end of the weekend, the Gulf ridge will reassert its presence
in the Deep South and push toward Kentucky. This brings rising 5h
heights to the JKL CWA along with northwest mid level flow and
just some additional energy moving through before stronger ridging
tilts the mid level flow more northwesterly on Monday into
Tuesday. Confidence then lags starting the new work week on
account of another trough moving into the Upper Midwest with
larger model discrepancies. The limited model spread through the
weekend supported using the NBM as the starting point with minimal
adjustments needed through the period - mainly to include some
radiational cooling based terrain distinction in temperatures at
night Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sensible weather features a damp and generally warm long term
portion of the forecast as plenty of moisture will be available
through the Ohio Valley. A large sfc low will gradually move
through the Upper Midwest into Friday with a slowing cold front
that lays out north of Kentucky Thursday night settling south
into Friday morning. A concern will be for more organized
convection that night and again on Friday night as the best upper
support pass by to the northwest with a mid level impulse or two
passing through the state on the southern periphery of the main
upper low. The potential for additional storm clusters will also
bring a non-zero threat for severe weather with damaging wind
gusts the primary concerns. This also kept the PoPs fairly high
through Saturday morning. Weak high pressure and some brief but
distinct drying does follow for late in the day and at night.
This will allow for more of a ridge to valley temperature split
that night. However, another storm cluster along that still nearby
stalled boundary could result in additional storm chances but
with low confidence on timing and placement for Sunday afternoon.
Another lull in the activity should commence that night into
Monday morning, but again shower and storm chances tick up for the
afternoon and carry into Tuesday. Given the continuing uncertainty
with this mesoscale demented pattern have maintained a chance for
showers and/or storms each afternoon through the weekend and the
start of the new work week. Likewise, temperatures will have a
larger potential spread from the latter part of the weekend
through Tuesday with the drier scenario favoring warmer
conditions.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding terrain distinction to the temperatures for Saturday night.
As for PoPs - did not deviate from the NBM solution given the
fairly similar model clusters and net results for this part of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across eastern
Kentucky at the start of the TAF window. Showers and storms will
create brief lowering of categories at terminals but once showers
and storms dissipate, terminals are forecast to return to VFR.
However, widespread fog is expected to develop overnight which
will cause another reduction in category after 08Z/Wednesday
through around 13Z. CIGS will slowly improve through the morning
before approaching VFR by the end of the TAF window. Winds are
forecast to be light and variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 5:35 PM EDT---------------
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