ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 3:10 PM EDT413
FXUS61 KILN 121910
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
310 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of upper level low pressure will move northeast through the
region from today through Wednesday. This system will bring showers
and storms to the area on occasion. Warmer temperatures are expected
by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Widespread shower activity will continue to spread northeast across
our area through this afternoon in association with an upper level
low lifting north over lower Mississippi Valley. These showers are
moving into a drier airmass so the northern edge will continue to be
slow to fill in/saturate. The clouds and pcpn have limited any
instability, so think any thunder chances look fairly minimal at
this point. As we head into tonight and start to lose the diurnal
enhancement, expect the shower activity to gradually decrease in
coverage and taper off. We will remain cloudy overnight and this will
help keep temperatures mild with overnight lows mostly in the lower
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will lift up into the lower Ohio Valley through
the day on Tuesday before beginning to open up as if shifts into the
lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night. A stronger axis of mid level
vorticity will pivot up around the low through the day on Tuesday.
This will combine with daytime heating/instability to allow for more
widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity to develop from
late morning on into the afternoon. With the CAPE remaining quite
skinny and very light flow through the mid levels, the potential for
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the thunderstorms. The
clouds and pcpn will once again help keep temperatures down a bit
with afternoon highs in the low to possibly mid 70s. Pcpn should then
gradually taper off again heading into Tuesday night as we lose the
diurnal enhancement. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A closed low over CWA begins the period, tracks slowly north into
lower MI during the day and then northeast overnight. A trough
extending se from this low will also move e and away from CWA
through this same time. Weak ridging behind the upper trough will
peak Thurs evening with falling heights through Sat morning.
Overnight Fri will see s/w energy skim the northern CWA as it
rotates around an upper low near/n of Lk Superior. Heights will rise
slightly as zonal wly flow replaces it on Sat, then rise a little
more Sun/Sun night as a ridge builds in the central U.S.
As the ridge develops Sat night, models diverge in the
characteristics of the ridge. GFS is quicker and more amplified,
while the Euro and Canadian look to be slower, less amplified, and
negatively tilted. Temps in the NBM forecast look to split the
difference between models from Sun onward, with wide variability
between 4 sigma levels through each of the periods.
Until Sunday, temperatures look to be in line wrt model and
operational forecasts, so only minor adjustments were made this
afternoon. Through that time, Thurs and Fri will be the peak in the
forecast with low-mid 80s, cooling down through Sun into the mid
70s. Lows in the low 60s Wed/Fri overnight will sandwich a balmy
upper 60s Thurs night. Sat night onward currently has low-mid 50s in
the north and upper 50s in the south.
A cold frontal passage Thurs night should bring the highest threat
for stronger storms in the region.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More widespread showers have been slowly overspreading the area from
the southeast this morning into early afternoon in association with
an upper level low pressure system over the lower Mississippi
Valley. The pcpn is moving into a drier airmass so it is still fairly
light and the cigs are still VFR. As we saturate through late
afternoon, do expect pcpn to become more significant and cigs to
eventually fall into MVFR category. Suppose it will be tough to rule
out an embedded thunderstorm later this afternoon into early
evening, but chances appear low enough to leave out of the TAF
forecast. Otherwise, with some diurnal component to the showers,
expect to see an overall dissipating trend heading into tonight,
although MVFR to locally IFR cigs will persist tonight into Tuesday
morning. More widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
then develop heading into Tuesday afternoon as cigs lift back into
VFR.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Wednesday,
then again on Thursday night. MVFR ceilings are expected Tuesday
morning, and then possible again Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 3:10 PM EDT---------------
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