CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 9:12 AM EDT322
FXUS61 KCLE 111312
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
912 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will dominate our weather pattern over the region
through Monday morning as it moves from southern Ontario toward
New England. The ridge will exit eastward Monday afternoon as
an upper level low wobbles northward from the Lower Mississippi
Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley through the middle of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
910 am update...
Forecast remains on track based on current models and
observations. No changes were made.
Previous discussion...
Beautiful weather and more sunshine will continue today with
high pressure over the Great Lakes region. The center of this
high pressure is currently located just north of the Upper Great
Lakes this morning and will slowly track eastward through
Monday. A northeasterly to easterly low level flow of 5 to 12
mph will keep temperatures cooler near the lakeshore today with
highs only in the lower to middle 60s. Further inland and away
from the lakeshore, high temperatures will climb nicely into the
lower and middle 70s.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue tonight with
overnight low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There
will be a increase in high level cloudiness late tonight. The
next weather system to impact our region will be a slow moving
upper level low tracking from the Mid-Mississippi Valley region
into the Lower Ohio Valley region on Monday. Clouds and
moisture will increase on Monday ahead of this approaching
weather system. It will start off dry on Monday but rain chances
will increase from south to north during the late afternoon into
the evening with the slow advancing upper level low into the
Ohio Valley. High temperatures on Monday will be warmest for
areas further north across northern Ohio in the middle to upper
70s. Thicker cloud cover and increasing rain chances will keep
temperatures in the lower 70s closer to central Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will
continue to move towards the Tennessee Valley Monday night into
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase from the south
Monday evening as the low lifts a warm front north across the local
area. Showers will likely increase in coverage by Tuesday as the
upper level low moves over the Ohio Valley before evolving into an
upper trough. This upper trough will push east across the region
through Wednesday as an upper ridge enters from the west Wednesday
night leading to a brief dry window.
Overnight lows will settle near 60 degrees each night through the
short term period. High temperatures on Tuesday in the low to mid
70s before rising to the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday will start off dry as the upper ridge builds eastward with
low pressure centered over the Northern Plains beginning to move
east towards the Great Lakes region. Precipitation chances increase
Thursday afternoon and continue through Saturday as this system
gradually works its way east across the Great Lakes. Temperatures
remain above normal through the long term with forecast highs in the
low/mid 80s on Thursday and Friday. Slightly cooler by Saturday with
forecast highs in the mid/upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue for this TAF update. High pressure
over the region will bring mostly clear to fair weather
skies. Winds will be from the northeast to easterly 5 to 12
knots over the next 24 hours.
Outlook...VFR and dry weather are expected through Monday
morning. Periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are forecast this Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure builds back over the Great Lakes today before
building east tonight into Monday morning. Northeasterly winds
generally 10- 15 knots will continue through Monday morning
before decreasing to 10 knots or less. Winds will oscillate
between southerly and easterly through the work week but will
remain 10 knots or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/23
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 9:12 AM EDT---------------
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