LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 1:26 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...217
FXUS63 KLMK 120526
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
126 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will spread north
across the area tonight.
* Intervals of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected to
continue through midweek.
* Warming trend later in the week, with highs well into the 80s
Thursday and Friday. However, unsettled weather likely to
continue through this period as well.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
Band of showers and thunderstorms is pushing into the southern tier
of counties in Kentucky as advertised, with initially heavy rains
dropping nearly a half inch in Simpson County thus far. Given the
radar presentation, precip rates do ease fairly quickly after the
first quick-hitting downpour.
Expect a slow northward progression of showers and storms through
the night, reaching at least the I-64 corridor by daybreak. This
trend is well-handled in the going forecast, so no changes planned
at this time, except to beef up the Hazardous Weather Outlook to
highlight the potential for brief heavy rainfall and associated
ponding.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
The Lower Ohio Valley remains under a split upper jet with a large
stacked low pressure system sitting north of the southern stream.
Currently, the system sits over Louisiana, and as the overall spit
jet pattern slides to the east, it will push surface features as
well. Surface high pressure extending into our region from the
northeast will get pushed farther to the east. This will allow the
surface low under the aforementioned system to push farther north,
and as it does that moisture will continue to get funneled north
from the eastern Gulf straight over central Kentucky and southern
Indiana. This is beginning to lift precipitable water values south
to north through the CWA. Just a few hours ago PWATs near the Ohio
River were near 0.25". They remain under 1", but by tonight we will
likely see some of the higher values slightly over 1.5"
This evening into the early overnight hours, showers and a few sub-
severe thunderstorms will begin working into south central Kentucky.
Activity will continue to work its way farther north across Kentucky
as we lose instability, making thunderstorms less likely, and with
the system's circulation remaining to our southwest near the
Mississippi River, it won't be until tomorrow morning before some of
our eastern communities see the precipitation. Winds mostly out of
the east with lots of low level cloud cover brought in with the
system will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s tonight.
Tomorrow, the system continues to slowly drift northeast towards the
Lower Ohio Valley. Winds veer towards the southeast. WAA and
possible holes in the clouds, allowing for extra sunshine, could
help provide a little extra instability. This would allow extra fuel
for thunderstorms as temperatures warm to the mid 70s to low 80s.
Some hail is possible with wind gusts, but due to weak shear, any
hail in a storm would likely see melting before hitting the ground.
Not expecting anything severe.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
Monday night through Wednesday will be unsettled as a closed upper
low slowly makes its way from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the
Appalachians. Shear to organize any convection will be quite weak,
but modest instability and respectable deep moisture (PWATs at 1.3
to 1.4 inches but high layer mean RH) will support widespread
showers and storms during the daytime. Anything that develops and
can sustain itself will move slowly, which could lead to localized
flooding of poorly drained and low-lying areas, especially on
Tuesday. By Wednesday the focus will shift into east-central
Kentucky as the axis of the upper trof/low passes overhead.
For Wednesday night and Thursday, shortwave upper ridging starts to
win out along with low-level warm advection. Thursday will be the
best chance at a dry day, as well as the warmest day of the week.
Temps could push 90, depending on how much greenness and soil
moisture limit our ability to heat up. In general look for Thursday
afternoon highs in the mid 80s with a good shot at upper 80s in the
urban areas.
For Friday and Saturday the upper pattern flattens out
significantly, with precip chances driven by the interaction between
a slow-moving sfc front and subtle disturbances in the flow aloft.
Will keep it in the chance category given limited forecast
confidence, with highs slightly above normal and lows well above
normal as diurnal ranges will be smaller.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025
Terminals are VFR early this morning, though as additional rain
showers push northward this morning, expect cigs to drop to MVFR and
possibly a brief period below the 2000ft fuel alternate threshold.
Cigs will lower from south to north this morning, with prevailing
-SHRA at all terminals. There will be a chance for a few
thunderstorms this afternoon, so decided to include -TSRA mention
with PROB30 groups. Otherwise, this afternoon could end up with some
breaks in precip.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 1:26 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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