MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 12:07 PM CDT ...New Discussion...431
FXUS64 KMOB 101707
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1207 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025
...New Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Now through Sunday...
A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms exited the forecast
area this morning while a cutoff upper low and surface low sits
over the western half of the forecast area. Ample clearing has
begun generally in the vicinity of the I-65 corridor in south-
central Alabama into the Florida Panhandle as drier mid level air
has wrapped around the low. This is setting the stage for the
potential of another round of strong to severe storms this
afternoon into early evening which will be discussed below.
Ample surface heating and low level moisture return is ongoing
from Baldwin County eastward across the Florida Panhandle into
south-central Alabama late this morning. Visible satellite reveals
a region of differential heating setting up along the
aforementioned area with a cumulus field gradually developing this
morning. A few showers have already begun to develop and should
continue to grow/mature as the afternoon progresses. The
environment is a bit unusual for our area with very steep low and
mid level lapse rates yielding over 200j/kg of 3CAPE amidst a
modestly sheared environment. Deep layer shear is generally around
25 to 30 knots, just enough to get storm organization into
multicell clusters and/or transient supercells. Weak SRI should
keep storms small allowing for the potential of our gulf coast
classic of mini spinny supercells this afternoon. SBCAPE values
around 2,000j/kg by this afternoon will allow for more robust
convection to develop, and given the proximity to the surface low
a significant amount of surface vorticity will be in place. Any
updraft that can tap into the sfc vorticity pool with the
magnitude of 3CAPE in place could see some potential for
tornadogenesis as that surface vorticity gets stretched, perhaps
starting initially as landspouts until a given storms
mesocyclone develops/matures. This potential will be maximized in
the vicinity of the I-65 corridor, particularly across south-
central Alabama where the most substantial low level convergence
exists on the northward lifting warm front beside the surface low.
Gusty winds will also be possible with any storms this afternoon.
As we head into tonight, with loss of daytime heating things
should stay relatively tame with isolated to scattered shower
coverage and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. We ramp back up
Sunday with a similar environment to today exhibiting high 3cape,
SBCAPE, sfc vort, and slightly better deep layer shear. Some mini
spinny supercells are possible once again, although low level
hodograph curvature is not quite as impressive as it is today and
the magnitude of 3cape is a bit more tame (only 100 to 150j/kg).
Can't rule out another potential for a brief tornado and gusty
winds in the strongest storms Sunday. A High risk of rip currents
continues through Sunday. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Scattered to numerous showers with a few possible embedded storms
affect the area overnight then coverage diminishes on Saturday
into Saturday evening. IFR/MVFR conditions become predominant
overnight, then improve to MVFR/VFR on Saturday. East to northeast
winds 5-10 knots are expected tonight. For Saturday, a northerly
to easterly flow near 10 knots is anticipated over southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama, while further to the east a
southeasterly to southerly flow develops. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
A low pressure system has developed over our Gulf waters and is
expected to push onshore this morning. This low will allow for
winds and seas to quickly increase, and a Small Craft Advisory is
in place through this afternoon. Winds will subside by Saturday
night and into Sunday. A light to moderate southwesterly flow
follows for early next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 79 62 78 61 83 67 85 / 10 50 40 50 10 10 0 0
Pensacola 67 79 67 78 67 81 71 82 / 30 60 60 50 20 20 0 0
Destin 70 78 69 80 69 81 72 82 / 50 60 60 50 30 20 10 0
Evergreen 63 80 62 81 58 84 62 89 / 30 70 60 70 20 30 0 10
Waynesboro 57 79 59 77 58 82 62 89 / 20 70 40 70 10 20 0 0
Camden 62 79 62 79 59 81 62 88 / 40 80 70 80 20 30 0 10
Crestview 64 79 62 82 61 84 63 87 / 50 70 60 60 20 30 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 12:07 PM CDT ...New Discussion...---------------
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