LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 1:51 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...573
FXUS63 KLMK 111751
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mostly dry for the forecast area today, except for south-central
KY, where isolated to scattered showers are possible this
afternoon. Rain shower activity spreads across the entire area by
tonight.
* Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday
night into the middle of next week.
* Warming trend for later in the week, with temps in the upper 80s
forecast for Thursday and Friday. However, unsettled weather
likely to continue through this period as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
The upper closed low remains over the Lower MS Valley this morning,
but is continuing to spread high level cirrus clouds across the area
this morning. Moisture transport has pushed as far north as
Tennessee so far this morning, evident by early morning shower
activity spreading northward across the Volunteer State. Some hi-res
data suggests we could have a few light showers sneak up into our
far southern KY counties this morning, though we have quite a dry
layer in the lowest 1km that will counter any considerable chances
for measurable rain. A weak frontal boundary was analyzed along the
I-70 corridor this morning, which is the extension of a dry cold
front stretching across New England. While this front lacks
moisture, it will sag south into KY later this morning, and may
interact with the northward-surging moisture from the sfc low over
LA/MS, leading to a low chance for an isolated light shower across
south-central KY. However, this front is expected to fade later on
this morning, which will result in a few hours without any rain
chances.
PoPs will return after 18z for south-central KY as a slightly richer
plume of moisture advects northward on the eastern side of the low.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon for south-
central KY, with the rest of the forecast area expected to remain
mostly dry though the daylight hours. Model soundings do indicate
some weak instability and shear for us to have a few isolated
storms, but the severe risk is low for today. SPC has kept our
southern area in General Thunder for today, with a Marginal Risk in
the southeast US/Gulf Coast where better shear will be. Temps are
forecast to reach the upper 70s and near 80 today, with winds
predominately out of the ENE.
The upper low will begin to shift northward tonight, which will
continue to increase the moisture transport into the Lower OH
Valley. Rain shower activity will increase this evening and
especially into the overnight. PWATs over an inch will push north of
the Ohio River this evening, with the higher PWATs still focused
across our southern half of the CWA with up to 1.5-1.6". Temps will
be mild tonight due to the cloud cover and WAA rain, so lows are
only expected to dip into the lower 60s.
Numerous to widespread rain showers will continue throughout Monday
morning as 1.5" PWATs spread out across the entire area and the
upper low continues the northward push. We'll continue to receive a
good moisture fetch from the Gulf on Monday, with daytime heating
helping to develop at least some instability. Model soundings still
appear to be overdoing CAPE for tomorrow, with some hi-res guidance
pushing over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE by Mon afternoon. With plenty of
morning rain showers and cloud cover over the area, it will be
difficult to destabilize that much by the afternoon. While some
instability will certainly be possible, the question remains on how
much. We should have decent shear values with the upper low spinning
nearby, with effective bulk shear near 25-30 kts by the afternoon. A
mix of showers and thunderstorms will be expected for Monday
afternoon, with perhaps a strong storm or two, but severe risk
remains low at this time. The main weather threat on Monday will be
locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
===== Monday Night through Wednesday Night =====
As daytime heating is lost, shower activity will likely decrease
Monday night. PoPs will drop from over 90% in the afternoon to
around 30% for the evening and night.
For Tuesday, the upper level low will be directly over the OH/TN
Valley area. Daytime heating will help shower and storm chances
flare up again during the day, though by Tuesday the better moisture
fetch should be located east of our area. Model soundings continue
to show some afternoon destabilization, though the shear parameters
will be virtually nonexistent. This will result in very slow storm
motions, if not stationary. Heavy rain rates will still be the main
threat as PWATs are expected to still be elevated to around 1.3". If
showers were to sit over a location, localized flooding of poor
drainage and low-lying areas could become an issue. Highs again will
be in the low-mid 70s. Showers will likely continue into Tuesday
night, but overall coverage should rapidly decrease after sunset
with the loss of heating again. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
around 60.
The upper low will begin to gradually shift to the east-northeast on
Wednesday, and is expected to begin to weaken by this time. Rain
shower activity will be much less by then as the forcing pulls away
from the region, with the best chances of rain expected to be along
and east of the US 27/127 corridor with decreasing chances as you
get back toward the I-65 corridor. Temps are forecast to be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s, with the cooler temps focused in the east
with the cloud cover and better rain chances. Lows Wednesday night
should be a bit milder with readings in the lower-middle 60s.
===== Thursday through Saturday =====
As we move into Thursday, most locations look to remain dry, but a
few isolated/scattered showers/storms are possible across portions
of SE IN and into southern OH and northern KY. The bigger impact
will be the considerable warming trend, with temps warming well into
the upper 80s, with a chance for our urban heat heat islands to hit
89-90 for the first time this year. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, it's not a slam dunk forecast for hitting 90 due to the
expected soil moisture after these rounds of showers and storms, and
the lush green vegetative cover we have at the moment. The urban
heat island of Louisville would be the most likely spot to hit 89-90
Thursday, if current trends pan out. Upper level trough axis will be
well to our northwest on Thursday allowing storms to fire across the
Midwest which probably will be severe. Some storms may get down into
southwest IN, but most ensemble guidance generally keeps the best
rain chances along/north of the I-70 corridor. We'll keep an eye on
Thursday night to see if we get any southern development down into
our region as frontal boundary drops southward toward the area.
For Friday/Saturday, it appears that we'll have a frontal boundary
in the vicinity Friday and into Saturday. The extended models have
quite a bit of spread here with varying solutions. Model soundings
suggest that we'll have instability and some shear, so scattered
strong/severe storms will be possible through this time frame. Highs
Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s. Maybe a little cooler on
Saturday with highs in the lower-middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
A low pressure system to our south, centered over Louisiana, will
work north over the next couple of days. This is going to drive the
weather affecting area TAF sites. Winds through the period will be
from the east to southeast. Tonight, BWG can expect to see
precipitation chances increase. This will also likely bring lower
ceilings to the airfield. These conditions are expected to hold off
at SDF, HNB, LEX, and RGA until tomorrow morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 1:51 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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