ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 2:14 AM EDT947
FXUS61 KILN 070614
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
214 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The cutoff low that has been driving the cloudy, cool, and showery
conditions finally moves east for Wednesday giving way to warmer,
drier conditions. After a brief cool down behind a cold front on
Thursday and Friday, mild and dry conditions are forecast for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Weak convergence axis extending northwest to southeast across the
forecast area has been enough of a focus to regenerate showers. This
axis is forecast to weaken over the next several hours which will
allow precipitation to come to an end with the clouds diminishing a
few hours later. Only exception is along the far northern counties
where clouds may persist or move back in from the north. Forecast
lows will generally be in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be between weather systems on Wednesday. With
almost no pressure gradient across the region, light northerly winds
could become calm or variable at times. Forecast highs reach into
the lower to middle 70s under a mix of sun and clouds.
Quiet conditions continue Wednesday night. Fairly calm wind, mostly
to partly cloudy skies, with near average temperatures are in the
forecast. Toward the last part of the night, a cold front starts to
sink in from the north which might support low end rain chances
especially north of I-70. Forecast lows drop into the lower to
middle 50s for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough axis and will pivot down through the Ohio Valley
on Thursday, helping to push a lingering surface boundary south of
our area through Thursday night. Some weak instability will develop
along and ahead of the boundary through Thursday afternoon,
resulting in a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly
across southern portions of our area. Some cooler air will also
filter down into the region through the day, with highs on Thursday
ranging from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s in the far south.
Surface high pressure will begin to build east toward our area on
Friday, leading to dry but continued cool conditions, with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 60s. The high will then build into the
Great Lakes region through the weekend, bringing a warming trend,
with highs into the 70s for Saturday and Sunday.
An upper level low pressure system will lift northeast from the lower
Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This
will lead to an increasing chance of diurnally enhanced showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the long term period. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will generally be VFR for this TAF period. Only exception
to this is the potential for fog and stratus early this morning at
the Columbus terminals. Rain today has left behind a cool, damp near-
surface environment. Low clouds and fog are developing across
northern and central Ohio, leaving a chance for these to expand into
CMH/LCK through 12Z.
Otherwise, a few models (see 3km NAM) suggest isolated showers could
develop after 00Z this evening along a weakly convergent boundary in
the ILN/CVG area. Since confidence is low, have opted to exclude
showers in these respective TAFs.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. Thunderstorms are
possible Thursday afternoon.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 2:14 AM EDT---------------
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