IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 9:37 PM EDT613
FXUS63 KIND 070141
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures returning to near normal Tuesday and Wednesday
- Briefly cooler Friday, then warmer temperatures return this
weekend into early next week with plenty of sun
- Rain chances return Monday into Tuesday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
The boundary layer is expected to decouple once again overnight with
a strong inversion at the surface. Patchy upper level cirrus should
not be enough to mitigate diurnal cooling, and with a weak boundary
over our south, near to calm winds should allow for surface
saturation to occur once again with patchy low land fog over the
southern third of the region. In addition to this area, there could
be some patchy fog along the Wabash waterway where dew points may
remain slightly elevated.
Otherwise forecast is on track and grid updates are out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Tonight.
Quiet weather is expected for tonight with surface gusts relaxing
after sunset as a near surface inversion sets in with the loss of
surface heating. Model soundings show little to no saturation aloft,
so clouds should become mostly clear after the diurnal cu
dissipates. Some cirrus aloft will stream in from the southwest
after midnight but this shouldn't have any impacts to overnight
temperatures with the thin nature of the clouds. Temperatures will
fall into the low 50s with a low-end threat for a return of fog
tomorrow morning. The threat looks much lower than this morning with
a drier surface airmass and weaker subsidence above the inversion.
Wednesday.
Another quiet day is expected for tomorrow with more widespread high
level clouds as the low pressure system to the south advects some
moisture aloft into the area. Afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the mid 70s with much lighter winds as boundary layer winds are
less than 10kts. Can't rule out a sprinkle across southwestern
Indiana, but with dry air below the cloud layer confidence is low
that the lift would be strong enough to precipitate from a cloud
deck at nearly 10kft.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Wednesday Night Through Friday.
The aforementioned low pressure system from the short term will
continue to slowly move eastward Wednesday night into Thursday with
a low-end threat for precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening as
convergence in the low to mid levels may be just high enough for a
narrow band of showers. Higher resolution models are properly
resolving this axis of rain but there is uncertainty as to where the
axis will set up, so will keep POPs somewhat broadbrushed with a
local maximum across the southern counties where confidence is
greatest. Surface flow will broadly remain light and northeasterly
through the rest of the work week with seasonable temperatures in
the upper 60s with comfortable dewpoints of mid 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the weekend into
early next week with a fairly stagnant upper level pattern with an
upper level low across the Gulf states and light easterly flow near
the surface across central Indiana. The low will begin to drift
northward early next week with rain chances increasing Monday into
Tuesday as the precipitation axis shifts northward. With no
connection to Gulf moisture, QPF will be minimal with no threat for
thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Impacts:
-Patchy fog at KBMG
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with few to sct
cirrus decks around 25kft. Winds will generally be out of the
W/WSW through the night, but could calm towards daybreak. A frontal
boundary will be positioned over central Indiana tonight through
tomorrow leading to variable light surface winds across the region.
This boundary may allow for some patchy fog at KBMG between 10-13Z.
Winds will shift towards northerly tomorrow night.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 9:37 PM EDT---------------
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