IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 9:55 AM EDT636
FXUS63 KIND 051355
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today and tonight will be cool with continuing chances for rain
- Seasonably mild much of this week, with isolated showers possible
south on at least a couple of afternoons
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Showers have largely diminished across the forecast area for the
time being this morning and actually getting a few peaks of sunshine
as well. Already temperatures were doing better than this time
Sunday with much of central Indiana in the low and mid 50s shortly
before 14Z.
The cutoff upper level low remains the primary influence for the
region today but the slow climb out of miserable conditions
experienced Sunday has begun as breaks in the cloud deck has enable
peaks of sun and better surface heating this morning. Expect another
spoke of scattered showers lifting up into the area from the
southeast later this afternoon as another mid level vort lobe
rotates around the upper low as it drifts east across Kentucky and
slowly weakens through the course of the day. Higher cloud bases and
continue breaks in the deck will enable temps to rise closer to 60
this afternoon.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
The pesky upper low will continue to influence the weather across
central Indiana through the short term.
Energy rotating around the upper low will bring some showers to
northern portions of central Indiana early this morning, while
forcing to the upper low itself will keep some rain across the far
southern forecast area. Patchy light rain will be in between.
During the day today, the upper low will drift northeast through
Kentucky and weaken some. At the surface, a weak low will weaken
as it lingers. Forcing from these will be enough to keep some chance
PoPs across the area.
Although temperatures warm some aloft today, some breaks in the
clouds could produce a bit of instability, which will aid in
producing the scattered showers. However, feel that instability
will remain low enough to leave out mention of thunder for now.
Clouds will lift today. resulting in better insolation at the
surface. The will allow temperatures to reach around 60 for
highs.
Tonight, the upper low will move northeast into Ohio. At the
surface, a stronger trough will move into the northeast forecast
area. This will be enough for some high chance to low end likely
PoPs there, with lower PoPs to the southwest.
Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to near 50.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Continue to expect a somewhat blocky and stagnant pattern in the
long term period, though perhaps a bit more progressive than in
previous forecasts. Guidance continues to trend more toward at least
a brief attempt at a Rex block type pattern that would suppress the
second low currently over the southwestern CONUS more to the south
and leave central Indiana largely drier and with temperatures
seasonably mild, somewhere near normal much of the period.
The first closed low bringing cool and dreary conditions to central
Indiana currently will be on the way out by Tuesday morning,
allowing for gradual clearing and lingering precip chances in the
northeast to come to an end by Tuesday evening.
Surface and upper level ridging now appears likely to exert some
influence over the area, particularly northern portions, leading to
less cloud cover and lower precipitation chances than appeared
likely a few days ago. Will likely have to carry some low shower
chances in the south on at least a couple of afternoons through the
long term, especially as the tail end of the longwave trough that
looks to absorb our current closed low sideswipes the region to the
east late in the week, but no more than 20 percent PoPs are
warranted at this time given model-to-model and run-to-run
inconsistencies.
Temperatures will return to numbers closer to seasonal normals for
the majority of the week. Blend has been trending toward above
normal readings over the coming weekend, but this may be premature
given the intrusion of a second cool airmass with the aforementioned
trough. Needless to say, uncertainties in the forecast grow and
become somewhat significant with time late this week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Impacts:
- Poor flying conditions early, then gradual improvement into
the afternoon
- Patchy light rain around
Discussion:
IFR ceilings will bounce into MVFR at times into mid-morning before
becoming predominant MVFR. Gradual improvement will then continue
into the afternoon, when VFR conditions look to return. Confidence
in the specific timing remains only medium though.
Patchy light showers may reduce visibility to MVFR, especially early
in the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 9:55 AM EDT---------------
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