LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 10:04 AM EDT637
FXUS63 KLMK 051404
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1004 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region
today bringing cloudy skies and continued periods of showers.
* Drier weather looks likely for Tuesday with another chance of rain
around mid-week with a potential cold front moving through.
* An emerging signal for drier and warm weather for late this week
looks increasingly likely.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
GOES satellite imagery shoes the upper low still spinning directly
over the area. On and off showers and drizzle will linger throughout
today, with no changes to the forecast needed at this time. Temps
are already reaching the low 50s this morning, but due to cloud
cover and precip will only expect the forecast area to hit the upper
50s and low 60s this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Area observations this morning showed cloudy skies with areas of
light rain and drizzle continuing across the region. The most
concentrated rainfall has been mainly across southern Indiana west
of the I-65 corridor. Temperatures across the area were in the
middle 40s. For the remainder of the overnight, no real changes in
the weather are expected. Periods of light rain and drizzle will
persist and temperatures through sunrise will remain fairly steady.
For today, we'll continue to see the stalled upper level low meander
across the region. This will keep skies cloudy with periods of
showers and drizzle continuing. The upper low will gradually head
off to the northeast this afternoon. As this occurs, southern KY
may break out into a bit of sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures
should be slightly warmer today with readings in the upper 50s to
the very low 60s. The warmest locations will likely be across far
southern Kentucky.
For tonight, the upper level low will continue to move northeastward
into central Ohio. An overall drier pattern will emerge across the
region, but low clouds will likely remain in place through much of
the night. Lows tonight will be in the middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Tuesday through Thursday Night...
Slow moving upper level low will continue to move off to the
northeast on Tuesday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into
our area and skies look to turn partly sunny. With the sunny skies,
we'll see temperatures warm into the upper 60s across southern
Indiana and northern Kentucky. Lower 70s will be seen across
southern Kentucky. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s.
By Wednesday, another closed upper low over the southwestern US is
forecast to push into the southern Plains. This low will move
eastward while an upper level trough pushes southeastward out of the
Great Lakes and thorugh the Ohio Valley during the day on Thursday.
Much of Wednesday may remain dry across the central and northeastern
sections of the forecast area. The models have continued to suggest
some isolated-scattered showers across the southwest sections on
Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches Wednesday night and
Thursday, a better chance of showers and a few storms will be
possible. Highs Wednesday and Thursday look to warm into the lower
70s with overnight lows in the 50s.
Friday through Sunday...
Drier conditions look to return to the region by late week as the
cold front pushes through the region. However, the upper level
trough will likely remain overhead, keep the region in a cooler
pattern. Highs Friday will be cooler than normal with readings in
the upper 60s to around 70. Lows Friday night will dip into the
lower 40s. A few upper 30s could occur in our northeast Bluegrass
areas if clouds were to clear out completely. Highs on Saturday
look to warm back into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Highs on Sunday
look to trend warmer with mid-upper 70s expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Upper level low over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift northeastward
today. Low cigs and scattered rain showers are expected through
much of the day today. A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs are expected, though
vsbys should remain VFR. Winds will be light/variable today, but
then shift to the southwest this afternoon. Conditions look to
improve somewhat by this evening as the upper low lifts into Ohio
and cigs rise into the VFR range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 10:04 AM EDT---------------
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