IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 6:29 AM EDT218
FXUS63 KIND 041029
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
629 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers at times today, diminishing to scattered by tonight
- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday, with lower
chances for showers lingering through Tuesday, and returning
Wednesday
- Well below normal temperatures through Monday, then warming trend
to near normal through the week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025
An upper level low will continue to be the driving force of weather
for central Indiana through tonight.
Early this morning, a couple of areas of rain continued across the
area. The southwestern portions of the area were seeing rain from
forcing closer to the upper low itself, while deformation was
helping with another band developing across the northeast forecast
area. These area of rain will continue through much of the early
morning hours.
During the day today, as the upper low moves to approximately the
Louisville area, the deformation band and its area of rain will
shift west across central Indiana. Relatively drier air will work in
behind it. Meanwhile, rain will continue at times across the
southern forecast area with forcing rotating around the upper low.
The result will be the higher PoPs shifting from the eastern
forecast area to the western area during the day, while higher PoPs
continue at times across the far southern forecast area.
Instability should remain quite low across central Indiana, so plan
to leave thunder out of the forecast. With clouds and rain around,
high temperatures will remain below normal with readings from around
50 into the lower 50s.
Tonight, deformation will weaken across the region. The upper low
will remain nearby though, so will continue with some chance PoPs
throughout the night. Temperatures will slip back into the 40s for
lows.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025
The long term period will be characterized by a stagnant and blocky
pattern featuring a couple of cutoff upper level low pressure
centers, which will impact the area into early next week, with the
second following mid to late week.
This will lead to seasonably cool and dreary conditions through
early in the week, with near constant chances for showers. As the
first low departs, a break in rain chances is possible sometime
around Tuesday night give or take before a lower threat for showers
returns Wednesday onward.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out during peak
heating each day, but chances at this point appear too low for
inclusion given the widespread cloud cover expected and difficulty
destabilizing, save for perhaps Monday afternoon.
Significant differences in model handling of the blocky pattern and
particularly the second low pressure system leads to lower
confidence and thus lower PoPs later in the forecast period. Trends
are toward a more Rex block-style pattern, which would suppress the
second closed low further south and lead to drier and less cloudy
conditions for central Indiana.
Temperatures will moderate a bit mid to late week as the mid to
upper level cold pool associated with the first low departs, and if
model trends hold, more breaks in cloud cover should help reach
these near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025
Impacts:
- Poor flying conditions developing this morning with MVFR
becoming common with patchy IFR
- IFR becoming widespread this afternoon
Discussion:
An upper level system will continue to bring rain to most of the
sites at times through the day.
Conditions continue to be slow to drop below VFR at most sites, but
ceilings should drop to MVFR at most sites with IFR possible this
morning. Visibility will dip into MVFR at times in the rain.
During the afternoon, IFR ceilings could become widespread.
Uncertainty in the specific timing of ceiling deterioration
continues to be higher than desired.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 6:29 AM EDT---------------
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