ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 7:30 PM EDT335
FXUS61 KILN 042330
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
730 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cutoff low will meander about the region through Tuesday, providing
periods of showers through the next several days. This will keep
below normal temperatures entrenched across the Ohio Valley until a
warmup develops toward midweek. Drier conditions are favored toward
the end of the workweek into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Deep cutoff/closed low over north central KY to drift very slowly
west tonight. This vertically- stacked system will wobble about the
region thru early part of the week before shifting east Tue/Tue
night.
Cold pool aloft associated with this low has advected 5H temperatures
of -23C to -25c in from the south. The cold pool aloft combined with
daytime heating has resulted in marginal instby with MUCAPE values
of 750-1000 J/kg across all but the far west. This instby combined
with several lobes of vorticity and low level convergent axes rotating
around the low center, has led to the development of convective bands.
Expect a general uptick in coverage thru late afternoon before
diminishing this evening. Thermal profiles suggest that the potential
exists for some small hail with better updrafts. Precipitation
coverage diminishes later this evening but can not rule out a
continued threat of a shower over the southwest thru the night. Have
limited this later threat to low chance pop.
Lows tonight generally in the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model solutions generally similar with closed low positioned to our
west at sunrise Monday to rotate slowly east and north toward the
Tri-State region Monday. A similar setup to today with showers in
the morning and a diurnal uptick in coverage of showers and storms
in the afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 50s to the lower
and middle 60s.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases Monday evening with the
better coverage shifting to areas along and north of I70 overnight.
Temperatures to drop to lows in the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper low over the southern Great Lakes will keep plenty of clouds
and showers around on Tuesday. Highest PoPs will be situated across
the north and east portions of the CWA. Tuesday will be another cool
day with temperatures in the 60s. Upper low finally shows signs of
departing Tuesday night, moving east into the mid-Atlantic states
with the potential for some clearing and low temperatures dropping
to within a few degrees of 50F.
Heights start to rise on Wednesday. There is a weak boundary
forecast to move southward through the CWA later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Can't rule out a few showers mainly in the southern
CWA, but for the most part later Wednesday into Wednesday should
feature a dry forecast. High temperatures are expected to rebound
into the lower to mid 70s Wednesday, with lows mainly 50 to 55F.
Behind this front, high pressure builds in from the north for the
late week period, bringing with it drier air along with temperatures
near climo for early May. There may be a chance of showers mainly
across the southern CWA Thursday into Friday where there will be
slightly better moisture, otherwise high pressure appears to hold
into next weekend, where temperatures will climb back above climo by
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Occasional showers will continue through the aviation forecast
period. Although some dry periods are expected, as indicated in the
TAFs, there could be a very low chance of a shower at just about any
time through the next 24 hours. The TAFs indicate the most likely
times for showers, as well as a PROB30 for a chance of thunderstorms
tomorrow at the Columbus TAF sites.
Conditions are generally VFR as of 23Z, but there will be a mix of
lowering ceilings and reduced visibilities later in the overnight
hours. Where MVFR to IFR ceilings form, visibilities will not be as
significantly reduced. Where clouds remain more scattered, some IFR
visibilities will be possible.
While some VFR periods are expected tomorrow, MVFR ceilings will be
the more likely scenario through the day.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will persist, at times, through Tuesday
night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 7:30 PM EDT---------------
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