LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 3:11 PM EDT463
FXUS63 KLMK 041911
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region
today and Monday bringing cloudy skies and periods of showers.
* Drier weather looks likely for Tuesday with another chance of rain
around mid-week with a potential cold front moving through.
* An emerging signal for drier and warm weather for late this week
looks increasingly likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
Surface low continues to spin over the region today. This has
allowed to continued overcast skies and light rain to persist. Over
the Bluegrass, skies thinned and lifted, allowing for temperatures
to warm up and instability to increase. A cumulus field is
developing into scattered showers and storms. Gusty winds and hail
will be possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
There is very weak shear present, so storms are not expected to
become organized.
Light rain and overcast skies will continue in the overnight. Better
chance for fog will development in the early morning as winds
become light. Temperatures will cool into the mid-upper 40s.
Monday afternoon, the upper low will slowly begin to move northeast
and bring the rain and overcast low clouds with it. Southern
Kentucky will likely break out of clouds in the end of the short
term period. High temperatures will continue to run cooler than
normal in the upper 50s and low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
Monday Night through Tuesday Night...
The upper low will continue to steady push off to the northeast of
the region Monday night and Tuesday. Skies will scatter out and
conditions will dry out under good sunshine. Temperatures will
return to slightly below normal in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Wednesday through the Weekend...
The closed low over the Desert SW will meander into the southern
Plains. At the same time, a eastern Canadian trough will swing
through the NE CONUS. Depending on the interactions of these two
features, it will shape the weather in the Ohio Valley. Guidance
continues to trend with the closed low over the southern Plains
shifting to the SE CONUS. The northern stream system would likely
bring a cold front through the Ohio Valley late week. These features
would leave mid week through the weekend mostly dry, expected for a
potential for showers along the cold front.
There is still uncertainty in the long term outlook, however, the
picture is becoming more clear. For this reason, temperatures will
be near normal and have lowered PoPs in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
Upper low continues to spin overhead keeping low CIGs and light rain
over the region. Over the Bluegrass, clouds have thinned and lifted.
Due to this, some showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the late afternoon. In the evening, CIGs will begin to
deteriorate. Fog will develop in the early morning over most of the
terminals. Late Monday morning, CIGs will improve as the low slowly
pushes northeast of the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 3:11 PM EDT---------------
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