IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 9:43 PM EDT985
FXUS63 KIND 030143
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated strong storm is possible in the far southeast portion
of Indiana this evening
- Cooler and unsettled with periodic showers and
isolated thunderstorms this weekend and into early next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
No major updates needed to the forecast this evening as everything
is generally on track. Added some more weight to near-term high
resolution guidance to account for recent minor trends.
Additionally, updated PoPs through tomorrow with similar reasoning.
Overall, expect continued cloudiness tonight with occasional light
rain showers. Some heavier embedded convective elements are noted
down near Jennings County as of 930pm but these should not be long-
lived or particularly intense. Temperatures should drop into the 50s
as colder air filters in from the north.
The core of an approaching mid/upper-level low arrives tomorrow
morning which may lead to additional showers or thunderstorms.
Uncertainty remains with timing and coverage Saturday morning as
guidance is having a difficult time pin-pointing where a convergence
zone sets up. Right now, it appears this area has the best chance of
setting up near Terre Haute. Rain rates under this area could be
quite heavy at times which may pose a minor flash flood threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
While this week has not been a complete wash out with many dry
periods in periods areas of convection, more widespread rainfall is
expected this weekend with much cooler temperatures.
.This evening and tonight...
Latest satellite imagery shows a boundary nearing the Ohio River
with a relatively drier airmass advecting in behind it across
Central Indiana. Energy from an MCV over Western KY and TN is
pushing northeast into Southwest Indiana, which may provide enough
lift and moisture for scattered showers over the next several hours
in South Central Indiana. Drier low levels may inhibit any showers
from reaching the I-70 corridor and anything that does make it that
far north will be very light. Chances for showers and a stray
thunderstorm exist across Southern and Southeast portions of Indiana
into the late evening hours. An isolated strong storm could move
into this area during the evening hours, but the best threat is
closer to the Ohio River. Any severe threat will be over after
sunset with showers remaining for mainly SE Indiana.
For tonight, cooler and cloudy conditions develop over most of
Central Indiana with isolated showers developing after the 4 AM
timeframe. An upstream trough depicted on satellite imagery,
approaches the region during the day tomorrow then becomes cut off
from the main flow. ECMWF guidance has depicted this cut off low
very well over the past week, so confidence is high in a stagnant,
wet, and cooler pattern setting up for the next several days.
.Tomorrow...
Best threat for showers Saturday morning will be across
South Central Indiana, expanding northward through much of the
region by the afternoon. Some guidance is hinting at enough
instability for a few non-severe thunderstorms to develop as cold
air advection aloft steepens lapse rates. Confidence is a little
lower on the thunder threat; however would not be surprised to see a
few storms develop during the afternoon hours, especially in any
area that gets enough surface heating. Widespread clouds will likely
keep highs below average in the upper 50s to low 60s. Went below
guidance for highs toward NBM25th percentile due to the shower
activity.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
The long term period will start off with a stagnant, lingering low
through early next week with a persistent omega block set up over
the CONUS. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
throughout that time and central Indiana will sit largely on the
backside of the surface low. While no severe weather is expected at
this time with this system, can't rule out the occasional
funnel/cold air funnel (not expecting anything to reach the ground
by any means) forming as this will be an ok set up for such things.
The block looks to dissolve by midweek but afterwards, models differ
on how the pattern evolves beyond that. The omega block breaking up
will allow for at least a break in precipitation around midweek.
There is a chance of another low, potentially another cut-off low,
forming towards the end of the week or during the weekend that could
bring additonal rain chances, but timing is unclear at this time.
Temperatures will be below normal for Sunday and Monday and then a
warm up to near normal is expected the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered rain showers at times, especially tonight through early
Saturday and again Saturday evening into Sunday.
- MVFR ceilings developing early Saturday.
Discussion:
An upper-level low pressure system is moving in from the northwest
and is expected to stall over Indiana tomorrow. This feature will
bring rounds of rain through Sunday. Rainfall will be largely
scattered in nature leading to uncertainty with timing in the TAF
forecast. HUF has the best chance of moderate to heavy rain early on
Saturday. The best chance of steady rain for all terminals is later
in the day on Saturday, towards the end of the TAF period. Rainfall
may lead to MVFR or lower conditions at times.
Ceilings should gradually lower into MVFR territory, regardless of
rain, as low-level moisture increases allowing cloud bases to lower.
Winds should become northeasterly this evening or early tonight as
the low approaches. A period of light and variable winds is possible
before the wind shift occurs. Wind speeds should remain under 10kt
until Saturday morning, increasing to 10 to 15 knots thereafter.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 9:43 PM EDT---------------
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