IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 6:53 PM EDT496
FXUS63 KIWX 302253
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms at times tonight through Thursday.
- An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late
Thursday, primarily from Findlay, Ohio to Muncie, IN.
-Sharply cooler Friday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Remnant MCV is working its way northern IL and northwest IN.
Departing high pressure over Lake Huron still has our dew points in
the upper-30s to near 40. Even so, 20-degree dew point depressions
have been overcome resulting in -RA at locations such at Monticello
and Valparaiso. The best corridor of low- and mid-level RH values
is confined to primarily the western half of the forecast area,
likely due to the lingering influence of the aformentioned high
pressure.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over east-central IL, drifting
into western IN this evening. This activity drifts northeast
overnight, arriving to areas primarily south of US 24. Moisture
advection continues north and eastward through Thursday morning thus
improving the coverage of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Should cloud cover scatter out Thursday afternoon, windy conditions
will develop and instability could accommodate a severe storm or two
primarily south of US 24. The cold front moves through around sunset
resulting in decreasing POPs thereafter.
A secondary trough rotates through Friday bringing a reinforcing
dose of showers and cold air. High pressure is parked overhead
Saturday night resulting in widespread lows near 40.
A towering ridge is forecast to develop over the Central US early
next week. We'll be on the cool side of this ridge to begin the week
but as this tracks east, temperatures will warm and a period of dry
weather is in the cards should this solution verify. Some
deterministic models attempt to bring a cut-off low to the
Appalachians as early as Monday which would provide slight-chances
of rain periodically through the week (collaboration boxed me into
slight-chance POPs). These cut-off patterns tend to be modeled
poorly such that subsequent model runs will need to be monitored
closely. Overall, am leaning toward the dry solution per pattern
recognition.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Widely scattered showers can be seen on radar as the rain works
to overcome the dry air overhead. Overnight, ceilings will
gradually lower from VFR to MVFR. While it won't be raining the
entire time, rounds of scattered showers and a few rumbles of
thunder are likely throughout the TAF forecast period,
especially tomorrow afternoon. Winds shift overnight and early
tomorrow morning from south to southwest, with gusts up to 30-35
kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 6:53 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
