IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 3:25 PM EDT271
FXUS63 KIWX 301925
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
325 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms at times tonight through Thursday.
- An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late
Thursday, primarily from Findlay, Ohio to Muncie, IN.
-Sharply cooler Friday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Remnant MCV is working its way northern IL and northwest IN.
Departing high pressure over Lake Huron still has our dew points in
the upper-30s to near 40. Even so, 20-degree dew point depressions
have been overcome resulting in -RA at locations such at Monticello
and Valparaiso. The best corridor of low- and mid-level RH values
is confined to primarily the western half of the forecast area,
likely due to the lingering influence of the aformentioned high
pressure.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over east-central IL, drifting
into western IN this evening. This activity drifts northeast
overnight, arriving to areas primarily south of US 24. Moisture
advection continues north and eastward through Thursday morning thus
improving the coverage of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Should cloud cover scatter out Thursday afternoon, windy conditions
will develop and instability could accommodate a severe storm or two
primarily south of US 24. The cold front moves through around sunset
resulting in decreasing POPs thereafter.
A secondary trough rotates through Friday bringing a reinforcing
dose of showers and cold air. High pressure is parked overhead
Saturday night resulting in widespread lows near 40.
A towering ridge is forecast to develop over the Central US early
next week. We'll be on the cool side of this ridge to begin the week
but as this tracks east, temperatures will warm and a period of dry
weather is in the cards should this solution verify. Some
deterministic models attempt to bring a cut-off low to the
Appalachians as early as Monday which would provide slight-chances
of rain periodically through the week (collaboration boxed me into
slight-chance POPs). These cut-off patterns tend to be modeled
poorly such that subsequent model runs will need to be monitored
closely. Overall, am leaning toward the dry solution per pattern
recognition.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Dew points fell down into the 30s last night into this morning and
this will allow some time before rain arrives at the terminals.
It'll likely take until later tonight to begin to get lowered flight
conditions, likely into MVFR, but perhaps a few hours dipping into
IFR. Wind-wise, east southeast winds today become southerly
Wednesday morning with gusts picking up by that time as a low level
jet moves into the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 3:25 PM EDT---------------
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