MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 4:31 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...618
FXUS64 KMOB 020931
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
431 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
Near Term (Now through Saturday night)...
An upper level shortwave trough swings south over the upper
Mississippi River Valley to over the Ohio River Valley, organizing
into a closed upper low through the journey. A surface ridge
stretching west over the northern Gulf coast keeps the Southeast
under moist southerly flow, with precipitable h20 levels rising into
the 1.5"-1.7" range by tonight. A cold front moves south across the
region beginning late tonight in response to the southward moving
upper system, eventually moving over, then south of the forecast
area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Today through
tonight, SPC has issued a Slight Risk for areas northwest of the
Alabama River, with a Marginal Risk southeast. MLCapes rise to
around 2500J/kg northwest of the Alabama River, tapering to 1500-
2000J/kg southeast, with DCapes rising to 800-1200J/kg over the
area. Wind shear is marginal, with Bulk Wind Shear of 20-35kts
across the area, with a generally linear wind profile indicated.
Guidance is also advertising modest upper support moving over the
northwestern third of the Southeast, adding to the possibility of
strong to severe storms. Wind damage looks to be the primary threat.
Mid level lapse rates of 7.0C-7.5C will add hail development as a
secondary threat. CAMs indicate discreet northeast-moving cells
developing today, with a more organized squall line moving over the
forecast area late this afternoon into the evening hours. Another
round of strong to severe storms are possible Saturday ahead of the
advancing cold front. Cape is less, with MLCapes of 1000-1500J/kg,
DCapes of 500J/kg or less. Wind shear is stronger, with Bulk Shear
around 40kts. Upper support is a bit stronger also as a modest 80kt
upper jet passes. Directional shear is a bit stronger, with some
guidance indicating 0-1km helicities approaching 100m2^s2, minimal
for any rotating storms.
Temperatures over the forecast area above seasonal norms are
expected today as rain coverage increases, then cooler drier air
begins to move over the forecast area. High temperatures in the low
to mid 80s today drop into the upper 70s to around 80 on Saturday as
cloud and rain coverage increases. Low temperatures tonight in the
60s drop into the mid 50s northwest of I-65 to low 60s over the
western Florida panhandle as cooler air overspreads the forecast
area behind the front.
A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected today through Saturday
night.
/16
Extended Term (Sunday through Thursday)...
Sunday through mid week, the Ohio Valley upper low moves off as a
second closed low moves east over the western Conus, building an
upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast in
the coming week. The cold front moves just south of the forecast
area before stalling on Sunday. A surface ridge builds over the
Southeast early in the coming week, re-establishing onshore flow
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast by Tuesday,
washing the stalled surface boundary out in the process. Several
rounds of shortwave energy pass over the Southeast mid week,
bringing rain back to the region Tuesday night through the end of
the week.
High temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected on
Sunday rise into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. The uptick in rain
chances and cloud cover for Wednesday and Thursday drop high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures ranging from
around 50 north of Highway 84 to the upper 50s south of I-10 are
expected Sunday night rise back into the mid to upper 60s over most
of the forecast area by Tuesday night with the increase in moisture
levels and upper subsidence.
A low to at times moderate Risk of Rip Currents is expected Sunday
through the mid week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
VFR conditions at this time over the forecast area will see local
drops inland to low end MVFR/IFR as fog forms later tonight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
Al/NW FL coast towards sunrise and move inland due to southerly
winds around 5 knots, bringing local drops in conditions to
localities near our TAF sites. This convection will expand in
coverage today as temperatures rise over the area. General VFR
conditions will see local drops to low end MVFR/IFR in and near
the storms. General southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots, around 10
knots near the coast, are expected, with stronger variable winds
possible near the thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
A light to moderate onshore flow through Saturday will shift to a
offshore behind a weak cold front moving over area waters Saturday
night. Onshore flow returns Tuesday as a surface ridge over the
Southeast returns.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 83 67 80 60 80 56 83 60 / 30 50 100 50 10 0 0 0
Pensacola 81 70 79 65 80 61 81 64 / 10 30 90 70 20 10 0 0
Destin 82 71 79 67 80 64 81 67 / 10 20 80 80 30 10 10 0
Evergreen 86 63 79 57 80 51 82 54 / 30 30 90 60 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 86 63 78 54 78 51 80 54 / 50 60 90 20 0 0 0 0
Camden 85 63 76 56 76 51 78 54 / 40 40 100 50 10 0 0 0
Crestview 86 63 80 60 82 54 84 56 / 10 20 80 70 20 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 4:31 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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