MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 4:32 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...291
FXUS64 KMOB 270932
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
432 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Through Monday night...
Upper level shortwave energy that has topped an upper ridge
stretching north over the Plains moves south along the east side of
the ridge Sunday into Sunday night, allowing the ridge to become re-
established Monday. Surface high pressure builds off the Carolina
coast early in the coming week, with a ridge building southwest over
the Southeast. A surface boundary that has stalled over the
Southeast washes out and a more organized southeast to southerly
flow becomes established over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western half of the Southeast in response. Even with the onshore
flow, high moisture levels over the Southeast (1.4"-1.6") see a drop
Monday into Monday night (to around 1") as subsidence created drier
air in the mid and upper levels over the Gulf moves inland over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. Already low rain chances Sunday
(slight chance east of the Tombigbee River) decrease even further
Monday as a result. Low level moisture remains high enough for
patchy overnight fog to develop the next few days, though.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above
seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to
the coast are expected Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures in the
low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper south to the
coast are expected Sunday and Monday nights.
A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today quickly settles to Low as
organized onshore flow eases. /16
Tuesday through Saturday...
An upper ridge pivots eastward over the southeast states through
Wednesday, leading to dry and continued well above normal
temperatures. The influence of the ridge lessens its grip the
second half of the work week as it shifts east off the southeast
US coast. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system approaches the
lower MS River Valley Thursday. With this feature's eastward
advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by later in
the day Friday. An increase in cloud cover and rain chances expected
Thursday and Friday. The front pushes south Saturday and brings a
return to drier weather. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
VFR conditions over the forecast area are expected to see local
drops to low end MVFR/IFR after 09z as fog develops. Best chance
will be southeast of I-65. Areas east of the Tombigbee will see a
slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR possible
in the stronger storms. Any convection will quickly decrease with
the setting sun Sunday evening. /16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
A light and variable, diurnally driven flow is expected into the
coming week. As onshore flow becomes established Tuesday and remains
so through the rest of the week, winds remain light to at times
moderate, with a slow increase in waves as swell from the Gulf
increases.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 65 86 65 86 66 85 68 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 84 67 83 68 81 70 81 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 83 69 83 70 82 71 82 70 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
Evergreen 90 63 90 62 88 63 89 63 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 0
Waynesboro 89 63 89 62 89 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 10
Camden 87 63 88 63 88 63 88 65 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 0
Crestview 89 62 89 62 87 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 0 10 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 4:32 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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