LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 8:01 PM EDT761
FXUS63 KLMK 010001
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
801 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated showers and storms remain possible through this
afternoon and early evening as a warm front sits across the area.
* Additional strong to possibly severe storms are possible for
Thursday afternoon and evening.
* Scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible
Friday and Saturday as unsettled weather continues.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Widely scattered strong to severe storms continue to evolve over
northern KY and southern IN in the vicinity of a warm front lifting
north. Much of this activity will remain north of I-64 and gradually
lift north out of the forecast area over the next couple of hours.
This activity is positioned along the instability gradient given the
position of the warm front. Sufficient instability along and just
south of the boundary, along with effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts,
have supported robust updrafts that have produced isolated large
hail. We may see one or two more storms capable of marginally severe
hail. However, the window for severe weather will be closing quickly
late this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
A stalled sfc boundary is bisecting our area today, which is nearly
parallel to the Ohio River this afternoon. With the Kentucky
counties on the warm side of the boundary, temperatures have warmed
into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Along with muggy dewpoints in the
upper 60s, some isolated showers and storms have blossomed within
the agitated cu field to the east of I-65. For the rest of this
afternoon and evening, expect a few more hours of isolated to
scattered showers and storms, with a few strong to marginally severe
storms possible during our peak diurnal heating. Instability
certainly is not lacking today given the temps and dewpoints, with
up to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE across east-central Kentucky. This pocket
is where convection has initiated so far.
The warm front will lift north of our area overnight in response to
a sfc low sliding from Oklahoma to Illinois. This sfc low will be
driven by an upper shortwave pivoting across the central US, with a
strengthening LLJ ramping up moisture transport and WAA ahead of the
trailing cold front. With the warm front lifting northward tonight,
precip coverage will shift to the north of the Ohio River for this
evening. Later into the night, a line of showers and storms well
ahead of the cold front will be approaching from the west, which
could be arriving into far western Kentucky by 04-05z. However, the
line of convection is expected to erode by the time it gets to our
area, thanks to low level capping and weak shear as a result of the
sfc low pulling away and heading towards the Great Lakes.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible tomorrow morning thanks
to low level stability. Unfortunately, additional showers and strong
to possibly severe storms will be on the table tomorrow, especially
for the afternoon and evening hours, as the cold front gradually
approaches the area from the west. Increased cloud cover may play a
role in slightly lower SBCAPE tomorrow, with HREF mean SBCAPE
peaking around 1500 J/kg early tomorrow afternoon. However, deep
layer shear will be around 30-35 kts, which will be plenty for
storms to utilize to become more organized in the afternoon and
evening. Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered tomorrow
afternoon, and not everyone will receive rain. For anyone who does
get a storm tomorrow, damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail
will be possible in the strongest cells. PWATs near 1.5" will
indicate heavy downpours, but with storm motions around 40 mph,
residence time of heavy rain should be brief, limiting flooding
concerns. Outside of storms, breezy southwesterly winds will be
expected late morning and through the afternoon, with gusts up to 25-
30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Will begin the long-term period on Thursday evening with strong to
possibly severe convection ongoing in the Ohio Valley. Gusty to
locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain
possible into the evening, but the risk will be diminishing sharply
by midnight as the upper shortwave axis and the strongest moisture
feed both push to our east.
Broad upper trof will sharpen on Friday as a wave dives SE across
the Plains. Boundaries will be hung up nearly parallel to
southwesterly upper flow across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, so
expect fairly extensive coverage of showers and storms, especially
during the warmest part of the afternoon. Shear is weak but mid-
level lapse rates are decent, so embedded thunder is in play but
would not expect any storm organization. Look for non-severe
thunderstorms with chances peaking in the afternoon and into the
early evening.
Forecast confidence for the weekend is still low, as there remains
some disagreement among the models especially in the Saturday time
frame. We continue to trend toward a deeper closed low over the
central CONUS, though the GFS remains slow to get on board with this
ECMWF trend. Now expect at least a cloudy and cool day on Saturday,
with temps struggling to crack 70 in the afternoon. Scattered
showers also looking more likely, and while we can't rule out
thunder completely, it remains a low probability.
Low confidence continues into early next week as the forecast hinges
on the eventual fate of the upper low. We'll hang on to 20-30% POPs
through Monday, but keep in mind that no day will be a washout.
Temps below normal for the weekend will recover back above normal
by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Scattered TSRA will continue early in the TAF period, mainly north
of I-64, before diminishing after sunset. Additional TSRA impacts
look unlikely at SDF and LEX this evening. Expect VFR overnight with
southerly winds increasing during the early morning hours of
Thursday.
Main concern Thursday is the potential for more widespread SHRA and
TSRA during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly after 16-18Z
(later for terminals further east).
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 30, 8:01 PM EDT---------------
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