ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 26, 1:47 PM EDT476
FXUS61 KILN 261747
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend
bringing cooler, drier conditions. As the high moves off to the east
early next week, temperatures will warm once again. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur ahead of the next cold front that will move
through late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
There are plenty of low level clouds across the region in the wake
of a cold front. Expect clouds to persist into early afternoon and
then clear relatively quick from northwest to southeast. Temperatures
will only warm into the 55 to 6- degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will move over the region during the period with a
very dry airmass in place. Only expect to see some thin high clouds.
There will be good radiational cooling tonight allowing temperatures
to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will be a little
warmer than today, reaching the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 ridge axis will be centered across the Midwest region at the
start of the forecast period. Efficient radiational cooling will
occur Sunday night, but we will be in a warming trend with the
amplified ridging feature.
Surface high pressure will slide eastward on Monday, drifting
towards the Atlantic coast. Return flow on the backside of the high
will aid in ushering warm, humid air, allowing highs to climb into
the middle to upper 70s. Lows will be very mild Monday night as cloud
coverage increases from the west ahead of a warm frontal boundary.
The ILN fa will be planted within the warm sector of a surface low on
Tuesday, resulting in the warmest temps of the period. Surface
dewpoints will also see a notable response, reaching the middle 60s
during the daytime hours. The warm, humid air mass will create
unstable conditions, with CAPE values reaching moderate levels. As a
pre-frontal trough and an eventual cold front move through the fa,
shower/thunderstorm chances will increase. Still noting the potential
for severe given the moderate instability, but shear profiles appear
to be more in the marginal range. CAMs will help assess potential
storm mode and coverage as we get closer to Tuesday.
Models continue to show the cold front sliding south of our CWA by
Wednesday morning, but stalling just south of the Ohio River. PoPs
will be lower on Wednesday, but cannot rule out a stray shower/storm
with the proximity of the frontal boundary, especially for southern
OH/northern KY. Eventually, a robust H5 shortwave trough will eject
from the southern CONUS up into the Midwest region -- likely on
Thursday. This will lead to increased coverage in showers/storms
across our CWA. The troughing feature persists into Friday and will
linger pcpn chances into the early part of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Post frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds (MVFR to VFR) will continue to
lift, erode, and scatter into this evening. These clouds will then
be replaced by some SCT-BKN high level clouds. Otherwise, surface
high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes southward into
the middle Mississippi River Valley will build east into the central
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As this occurs, northwest to north winds
10 to 15 knots with local gusts to 20 knots will decrease between
22Z and 00Z, becoming light northerly or northeasterly overnight.
On Sunday, high pressure will continue to extend across the region.
Only a FEW-SCT high clouds are expected. Winds will generally be from
the east between 5 and 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms expected to occur Tuesday into Tuesday
night. MVFR/IFR conditions likely Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 26, 1:47 PM EDT---------------
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