JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 24, 7:41 AM EDT087
FXUS63 KJKL 241141
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
741 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers/storms are possible today, Friday, and
Saturday, with the best chances today and on Friday afternoon
when heavy rain is possible.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will be in place through
Friday night.
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
Current radar trends show widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of the Mountain Parkway. While showers may
continue through daybreak, thunderstorms should become more sparse
by sunrise. This lull in thunderstorm activity will be short-
lived as a warm front will continue to push north through the day
leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms. With model
dewpoints in the low 60s this afternoon and PWAT values of 1.3
inches, the potential for localized heavy rainfall is possible.
Eastern Kentucky will generally see a quarter to half an inch of
rainfall in general showers, however embedded or training
thunderstorms could produce isolated areas of 1.5 to 2.0 + inches
of rain, which could lead to localized minor flooding. The 95th
percentile of the HREF used as a worst case scenario, shows a few
areas of rain near 2.5 inches, mainly along and south of the Hal
Rogers/KY-80 corridor. The WPC has added the area into a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures generally range in the low to mid 70s today. Winds
remain light and variable through the day, but gusty or erratic
winds will be possible around or near thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances greatly fall off after sunset with a slight chance of
showers through the overnight. Lows will remain warm, around 60.
Friday, a surface low will be over the Upper Great Lakes region,
with an occluded front extending into the Northeast, and a cold
front trailing back into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Central
Plains. Kentucky will remain in the warm sector out ahead of this
next approaching system through the day. Light southerly winds will
continue to not only bring warmer temperatures to the area, but
add moisture as well. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will
again be likely across the area with surface dewpoints again near
or in the lower 60s, with PWAT around 1.4-1.5 inches. Eastern
Kentucky will generally see a quarter to three quarters of an
inch of rainfall from showers, however embedded or training
thunderstorms could produce isolated areas of 1.5 to 2.0 + inches
of rain, which could lead to localized minor flooding. The WPC
has the entire state in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain in the 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
Friday night through Saturday, showers and thunderstorms continue
out ahead of a cold front. Saturday afternoon the cold front from
the Upper Great Lakes low moves through leading to showers
tapering off heading into the evening. Temperatures will return
to near normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clearing skies will
allow for temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. Sunday
through Tuesday morning a ridge of high pressure builds into the
area, leading to a warming trend with temperatures rising into
the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. There may be a slight chance
(15-20%) of light showers Monday afternoon, mainly south of the
Mountain Parkway. The threat for showers and thunderstorms return
area wide Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of the next
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
All sites currently remain VFR, but CIGS will begin lowering,
down to low end VFR. Most thunderstorm development begins as early
as 15Z tapering off as late as 03Z Friday as a warm front pushes
north. Any thunderstorm could reduce conditions into MVFR or IFR.
Winds will remain light and variable throughout the period, except
near showers and thunderstorms, where winds could become gusty
and erratic.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 24, 7:41 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
