PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:39 AM CDT581
FXUS63 KPAH 131139
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight and Friday
afternoon.
- Hot and humid Sunday. Heat index values around 100 degrees. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
- A chance of showers and storms is forecast Monday through next
Thursday. Very warm and humid.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The warming trend will continue today, as surface high pressure
begins to lose its grip on the region. The NBM has consistently
been near the high end of guidance the last couple of days and
that has verified pretty well. Will stick with it for today with
most of the region approaching 90 degrees. Although dewpoints
are slowly modifying, they will not have much of an impact on
heat indices today.
A consistent stream of energy will eventually carve out an upper
trough over the Great Lakes tonight. This will help touch off
some strong to severe storms to our northwest this afternoon and
evening. There is some potential for a cluster of thunderstorms
to approach the Quad State generally after midnight tonight.
The storms would be running out of instability as they get here,
so they should not be severe or make it far into the area. We
will continue with 20-30% PoPs across the northern half of the
region with the best chances along and north of I-64. Some gusty
winds, heavy downpours, and lightning will be the primary
concerns.
There is a pretty strong consensus for a dry forecast Friday
morning, but not so much so for the afternoon. A weak cold front
will be passing through the region through the day and there
could be a remnant outflow boundary from the late night storms
to help focus convective development in the afternoon. Up to
2000 J/kg of CAPE is possible as lower 70 dewpoints pool over
the region. Coverage is likely to be isolated, so we have only
slight chance PoPs mainly over the southern half of the area in
the afternoon. Shear will be weak, so thunderstorms should be
pulsy with some gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning.
Surface high pressure will build back over the region for
Saturday. That will bring some relief from the building heat and
humidity, especially across the north. However, by Sunday, south
winds will bring increasing humidity and high pressure aloft
will help temperatures soar into the middle 90s. Heat indices
will approach 100 degrees over the entire region. The forecast
remains dry Sunday, but with the heat and humidity and the tail
end of a upper-level disturbance potentially sweeping through
the region, a few thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out.
Next week through Thursday continues to look hot and humid in
the absence of thunderstorms, as high pressure aloft remains
centered just east of the region. Impulses riding north on the
west side of the high will attempt to move through the Quad
State and bring daily chances of thunderstorms. The ECMWF
continues to be stronger with the upper high and therefore keeps
the area mostly dry, especially Wednesday into next Thursday.
Temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s for highs
and the low to mid 70s for lows through the period. Afternoon
heat indices will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each
day.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The TAFs are VFR. There is a small chance of some showers or
storms reaching KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB after 06Z, but it is too
low to mention. An MVFR ceiling cannot be completely ruled out
in the last few hours of the forecast at those northern sites.
South winds may gust 15-20kts at KMVN for much of the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:39 AM CDT---------------
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