IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 12:54 AM EDT385
FXUS63 KIND 230454
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1254 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures through the rest of the week
- Shower and thunderstorm chances late Thursday through Friday night
- More active pattern setting up next week with better chances for
storms
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally
evolving as expected. The only minor adjustments have been to dew
points which initially were too high compared to observations as
some mixing was occurring through the afternoon, but as afternoon
mixing has come to an end, dew points have gradually stabilized and
started to rise. Rain continues to remain northwest of the
forecast area, so will maintain less than 15 POPs through the rest
of the early overnight.
Fog looks unlikely towards tomorrow morning as Max RH values get to
around 85-90 percent, but if any fog does form it looks to be across
the northwestern counties along the Wabash Valley where some
localized valley fog is possible. With the mostly clear skies and
light winds, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 look reasonable, so
have not adjusted from the previous forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over SW OH and NE KY. Weak southeasterly surface flow was found
across Central Indiana. Southerly surface flow was in place across
the plains ahead of weak low pressure in SW KS. A weak boundary was
found stretching from western IL to northern MO and across KS toward
the previously mentioned low. GOES16 shows mainly high CI streaming
across Central Indiana and temperatures were quickly climbing toward
70. Aloft, water vapor showed mainly a zonal flow in place. A weak
upper wave was producing some rain over WI.
Tonight -
Zonal flow is expected to continue to stream across central Indiana
through at least Wednesday. Little in the way of forcing dynamics is
shown to pass during this time. Models suggest the weak boundary to
the northwest will remain in place and become more elongated,
perhaps stretching into northern Indiana overnight. Light rain was
found over IA, pushing east near this boundary. Uncertainty is
suggested with the easterly flow of this precipitation as plentiful
dry air within the lower and mid levels remains present across
Central Indiana. HRRR suggests that some of the precipitation will
drift toward Central Indiana but will dissipate upon approach.
Perhaps the only locations that could be impacted include Lafayette
and Kokomo, but confidence is low. Thus may include some very low
pops there tonight, otherwise dry weather will be expected with only
high cloud streaming aloft and lows around 50.
Wednesday -
Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as the
zonal flow remains in place aloft and a stalled surface boundary
remains well northwest of Indiana. This will keep warmer, southerly
flow in place across Central Indiana along with warm air advection.
Forecast soundings and time heights suggest a dry column through the
day. Thus a mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 70s will be
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
The long term period features a stretch of above normal temperatures
with a few chances for rainfall, mainly on Friday. A more active
pattern develops next week with better chances for storms, but
continued above normal temperatures.
Thursday through Saturday...
The pattern going into the weekend resembles more of a May pattern
rather than April with above normal temperatures, increasing
humidity, and some rainfall and storm chances. The main upper jet
will be well to the north, along the US/Canadian border, with a few
weak mid level features passing through Indiana Thursday and Friday.
At the surface, lower pressure develops along the Front Range while
a warm frontal feature stretches through the Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes, placing Indiana in an area of warm and moist air
advection. A subtle mid level wave passes through Kentucky Thursday
afternoon, providing just enough lift to spark off scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Not too worried about severe weather as shear and
forcing are relatively weak, resulting in mainly single cell pop up
convection that falls apart quickly. While most locations in Central
Indiana will remain dry, best chance for an isolated shower or storm
would be along and south of the I-69 corridor.
Expect above normal temperatures Thursday near 80 degrees across
Central Indiana within the broad warm sector over the region.
Shower and storm chances ramp up early Friday morning for much of
the state as a weak area of low pressure and trailing cold front
approach from the west. A secondary mid level wave ahead of the main
system looks to spark off more widespread convection Friday morning
into early afternoon, persisting into the evening as the cold front
approaches. Long range ensemble guidance has been consistent with
keeping rainfall amounts Thursday - Friday under a half inch for
most areas, with the greatest threat at higher amounts in the
southern half of Indiana. In these weakly forced, convective
regimes, it is easy to get wide ranging rainfall amounts over short
distances based on where convection develops or if certain areas get
repeated rounds of storms. Overall, the heavy rain threat should be
relatively localized, instead of widespread as seen earlier this
month.
Rainfall and cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler
than Thursday; however persistent warm air advection should result
in temperatures still above average for late April in the low to mid
70s. Chances of convection drop off from northwest to southeast on
Saturday as the front moves southeast. Modest cold advection will
also bring temperatures closer to normal into the 60s to low 70s.
This weekend into early next week...
High pressure traverses eastward through the upper Great Lakes this
weekend keeping conditions relatively warm and dry for Central
Indiana. Cloudy skies post front on Friday night will slowly clear
Saturday as easterly flow advects in cooler and drier air. Still
expecting temperatures near to slightly above normal on Saturday
with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to low 70s further
south.
A warming trend begins again on Sunday as high pressure pushes east
and ridging rebuilds over the area. Eyes turn to early next week for
the next chance for widespread rain and storms. Longer range
guidance has been consistent in showing stronger troughing digging
into the Plains Monday and Tuesday setting the stage for storm
development upstream. There are still many model discrepancies on
how this set up evolves; but confidence is increasing in the storm
threat for at least Tuesday. Lower confidence on storms Monday as
guidance tries to resolve smaller mid level features ahead of the
main system. It is too soon to determine if severe weather will be a
threat locally, however it is not out of the question. The pattern
remains active through much of next week with additional rain and
storm chances likely persisting into the day 8 through 10 timeframe.
This pattern supports continued above normal temperatures in the 70s
and 80s each day.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Impacts:
- None.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with only some
passing thin cirrus aloft. Look for light and variable winds through
the morning. A predominately south-southeasterly direction is then
expected later in the day with winds remaining light.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 12:54 AM EDT---------------
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