LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 10:00 PM EDT020
FXUS63 KLMK 240200
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Thursday through
Friday night. Severe storms are not expected. Up to 1 inch of
rain possible. Renewed river flooding is unlikely.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Warm front draped along the KY/TN border will continue to support a
few stray showers overnight, but should stay south of the Cumberland
Parkway. While we have seen boundary interactions fuel enough
regeneration near Nashville for a flash flood threat, available
moisture over southern Kentucky is lacking. WIll maintain 20-30%
chances for rain overnight across south-central Kentucky, which is
well in line with the previous forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
An east-west warm front draped along the length of the Commonwealth
this afternoon has introduced a slightly more moist atmosphere and
light southerly breezes to the southern half of central Kentucky. A
cu field has developed and some of these clouds may become tall
enough to produce showers, with a few small echoes starting to pop
up from middle Tennessee to eastern Kentucky already. There is some
mid-level warmth, extremely dry air above 700mb, and deep layer
shear is weak. Cells that develop this afternoon and evening will be
short-lived and widely spaced. Mesoscale models suggest that
isolated shower activity could continue into the nighttime hours,
but the great majority of the activity should be diurnally driven
and dissipate after sunset.
The pool of chilly air that gave us our cool temperatures this
morning has pushed off to the east, so low temperatures tomorrow
morning will be several degrees warmer in the 50s.
Tomorrow the entire region will be in the warm sector as tonight's
warm front pushes north into IL/IN/OH. This will result in greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Shear, lapse rates, and instability will be unimpressive, and no
severe storms are expected. Precipitable water values will be
slightly above normal leading to the possibility of some locally
heavy downpours, but they would be brief and not pose a flooding
threat. High temperatures Thursday will be from the mid 70s to
around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Stalled sfc boundary will be to our north stretching across the
southern Great Lakes back west towards IA and into central KS. A
weak sfc low along with a mid-level shortwave over the Central
Plains will move along the boundary and into the Great Lakes by
Friday evening. As the sfc low works across the Great Lakes during
the day Friday, it will drag a cold front through the Mid
Mississippi Valley and then through the Ohio Valley late Friday
night into early Saturday morning. A strengthening LLJ ahead of this
system will surge PWAT values to around 1.50" by Friday afternoon
and evening ahead of the approaching boundary. This corresponds with
our highest chance of shower and thunderstorm activity during this
time. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, increased cloud
cover and cooler temperatures will limit the amount of instability
Friday afternoon, with heavy rain being the main impact from any
showers and thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to
range between a half an inch to just around an inch through Saturday
morning. Renewed river flooding remains unlikely with the main
impacts coming from localized heavy downpours.
As the cold front sweeps through and pushes south and east on
Saturday, strong high pressure will build in from the north. While
we may have a few lingering showers, mainly to the east and south
Saturday morning, the overall weekend forecast looks to be dry.
Clouds and cooler temperatures along with a northerly flow is
expected on Saturday as highs will be in the mid/upper 60s across
southern IN and northern KY while upper 60s to near 70 will be
likely along the KY/TN border. Winds become more easterly by Sunday
with more sunshine with temperatures warming into the low 70s.
Sfc high pressure will shift eastward as upper ridging builds in over
the region to start the week. Monday looks to remain dry and warmer
with highs getting into the upper 70s/low 80s. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, another shortwave trough and associated cold front
approach from the west will increase our shower/storm chances,
especially for Tuesday. Tuesday could be the warmest day of the week
as highs warm into the low/mid 80s ahead of the approaching system
then into the 70s for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
A weak warm front has sparked a few light showers between BWG and
RGA, but the window of opportunity is closing for precip to affect
either terminal. Otherwise light E-NE winds with the exception of
BWG which has gone to southerly, and mainly cirrus ceilings this
evening. Any remaining precip should fizzle and mid-level clouds
should dissipate early this evening, leaving behind weak easterly
flow and cirrus.
Look for a wind shift to south late Thursday morning as the warm
front lifts north again. Mid-level clouds will return as well, and
we can't rule out a few showers breaking out in the warm advection
regime in the afternoon. Have included a TEMPO in all but HNB for
afternoon showers, but confidence is low to medium at best and
cig/vis expected to be no worse than high-end MVFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 10:00 PM EDT---------------
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