IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 2:52 AM EDT705
FXUS63 KIND 220652
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
252 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog quickly dissipating after sunrise; Plentiful sunshine
with highs in the 70s today
- Warm temperatures through the rest of the week
- Shower and thunderstorm chances late Thursday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Quiet weather is expected through the period as surface high
pressure remains centered over the area. Current satellite imagery
shows mostly clear skies across central Indiana as surface ridging
continues to build in. This along with nearly calm winds should
allow for patchy fog to develop shortly.
Look for any fog that develops to quickly mix out after sunrise. A
beautiful spring day is then expected as plentiful sunshine and
light S/SW flow into the 70s. Dewpoints will also be very
comfortable in the 40s thanks to drier air advecting into the
region.
Light winds and mostly clear skies should allow for efficient
radiational cooling once again tonight. While quiet weather is
expected overnight, there is a low (10-20%) chance for light
showers across far N/NW counties due to a weak disturbance moving
through. Latest CAMs show a stalled frontal boundary and
associated nocturnal LLJ promoting the development of convection
across IL. This convection will then propagate eastward and likely
weaken as it moves into a drier airmass. Low POPs were added as
the weakening showers or storms could potentially reach the area.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Wednesday and Wednesday night...
Very warm temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with relaxed
southwest flow aloft and BUFKIT soundings showing a very dry column.
This should lead to mostly sunny skies and well above normal
temperatures with highs in the upper 70s, which is some 10 to 15
degrees above normal. The weak surface pressure gradient will result
in rare light southeast winds compared to recently. The column will
continue to be very dry Wednesday which should allow for good
radiational cooling but still well above normal lows in the 50s.
Thursday through Saturday...
A more active weather pattern will return late week into the early
weekend as an upper wave moves through in the southwest flow
Thursday night into Friday and the moisture deepens substantially
and a cold front moves in from the northwest Friday night. Models
suggest PWATs could briefly reach 1.5 inches, Friday afternoon and
evening, or the max moving average of ILX SPC sounding climatology
for late April. That said, PWATS may be slightly exaggerated with
the lack of a strong low level jet. Nonetheless, even PWATS
reasonably close to 1.5 inches along with some instability and the
front moving in would support widespread convection and a heavy rain
threat. Models suggest at least some weak instability, at the
least, should be around Friday evening.
Chances of convection drop off from northwest to southeast on
Saturday as the front moves southeast. Modest cold advection will
also bring temperatures closer to normal from the well above normal
temperatures in store for Thursday and Saturday.
Saturday night through Monday night...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and a dry column are expected to
lead to clearing skies Saturday and Saturday night. Winds will
switch to the southeast on Sunday and southwest Monday as the high
shifts to the Appalachians and a low pressure system takes shape
over the Plains. This will allow for gradually moderating
temperatures Sunday and Monday with more convection possible by
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Impacts:
- Predominately VFR conditions through the period
- Brief patchy MVFR fog possible 09-12Z, mainly near KHUF
Discussion:
Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period with
high pressure centered over the region. Light winds and clear skies
will allow some patchy MVFR fog to form early this morning, with
KHUF having the best chance to see the fog. Will include a period of
fog there, but cannot rule it out at the other sites but KIND.
Fog will mix out quickly after daybreak leaving VFR conditions.
South-southwesterly winds will increase slightly to around 05-10 kts
during the day.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 2:52 AM EDT---------------
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