ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 19, 2:36 PM EDT587
FXUS61 KILN 191836
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
236 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times today before a
cold front moves into the area tonight into early Sunday. A small
chance of showers and storms will evolve Sunday before a better
chance for more widespread activity unfolds early Monday as the front
pushes through the Ohio Valley. Drier and slightly cooler conditions
will evolve Tuesday through Wednesday in the post frontal
environment.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main focus for the near term period is going to be the
expectation for scattered showers/storms to move back into the
region through early evening. There is plenty of impressive deep-
layer shear to work with, as well as some relatively steep ML lapse
rates, suggesting that ongoing convection upstream across IL/IN,
should continue to maintain structure and strength as it moves
swiftly to the NE amidst a slowly-destabilizing environment locally.
Any N-S oriented or bowing line segment is going to bring with it
the elevated potential for strong to damaging wind gusts, especially
into late afternoon as the BL destabilizes and the LL thermodynamic
environment ripens following early day storms.
The limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat is going to be
the relatively stable air located near/N of I-71 in the wake of early
day convection. This has created a "worked over" environment for
many spots near/N of I-71 (despite ongoing destabilization efforts
with plentiful sunshine), with the only "pristine" LL environment
still lingering in parts of N/NE KY into far south- central OH into
late afternoon/early evening. So with this in mind, the best severe
potential should focus across the SE third of the local area into
early evening (generally near/S of I-71). With strong deep-layer
shear and the presence of good ML lapse rates, both damaging winds
and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. It is
important to note that additional SCT storms will still be possible
N of I-71 late afternoon through early evening, but the severe
potential in this area should be more limited given the more
questionable instby availability in these spots.
With the front draped across the region, we will end up with a
decent temperature gradient across our area today with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the mid 80s in our far
southeast.
Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should wane in coverage/intensity late evening,
becoming more spottier and more isolated in nature by midnight and
beyond. Most spots should be dry for the overnight as the front
drifts to the S through the local area. This will allow for an
influx of very dry LL air near/N of the OH Rvr by daybreak as the
front briefly shifts S of the ILN FA toward sunrise. BKN/OVC skies
are expected through tonight, with low temps ranging from the upper
40s N of I-70 to around 60 degrees in N/NE KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front will be stretched nearly W-to-E across far srn parts of the
local area Sunday morning, but the ejection of the primary sfc low to
the N across the mid MS Rvr Vly into the afternoon will allow for the
front to pivot back to the N through the area, allowing for /very/
warm air to once again overspread the area from the S. A few ISO
SHRA/TSRA may be possible as the front swings back to the N,
particularly near/W of I-75 where moisture availability will be
better through early afternoon.
There will be quite a temp gradient across the local area as the
front drifts to the N through the heart of the daytime, with temps
ranging as much as 20 degrees from S-to-N by midday, with temps in
the lower 80s to lower 60s, respectively by mid afternoon. Conditions
should trend mainly dry by late afternoon, but suppose a rogue
SHRA/TSRA cannot be completely ruled out along/near the advancing LL
boundary.
The area will become more firmly warm-sectored by Sunday
evening/night as the sfc low moves NE from MO through IA into
southern WI by daybreak Monday. This will allow for the attendant
cold front, and the associated SHRA/TSRA, to approach the ILN FA
around/after daybreak Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday, the low continues to progress northeast through the Great
Lakes region and an associated cold front works through the OH Vly
during the day. Shower and storm chances increase ahead of the
front, which will move through ILN FA during the morning into
afternoon. Currently, severe probabilities remain on the low side
since instby should remain a bit on the meager side, even in the
warm sector. Additionally, shower/storm coverage is not expected to
be overly high as the forcing becomes increasingly weaker with
eastward extent into the OH Vly by mid/late Monday. However, as with
any frontal passage this time of the year, the potential for severe
storms will be monitored closely, even if expected to be relatively
low/minor.
Slightly cooler and drier air returns behind the front for the
middle of the week. Shower and storm chances return by the end of
the week when another stalled boundary drifts into the Ohio Valley by
Thursday into Friday.
Overall, temps should be near normal Monday into Tuesday before
trending back well above normal midweek through the end of the
workweek. The timing and coverage of precipitation late week remains
uncertain at this time, but rain/storm chances should increase again
for the end of the workweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The earlier convection has since departed the area, but SCT SHRA/TSRA
is expected to move back in between 21z-01z from W to E, locally.
There are a few uncertainties regarding the coverage of this activity
during this time, but the best chance for some TS, as well as some
brief MVFR VSBYs, should focus near KCVG/KLUK/KILN. The activity
should move through fairly quickly, although there may be several
clusters to impact one particular site during the several hour window.
CIGs should remain primarily VFR until after the pcpn ends when the
front actually begins to drift to the S through the area. MVFR CIGs
should develop, at least briefly, from N to S from about 02z through
08z, eventually shifting to the S of the sites toward daybreak.
Additional ISO SHRA will be possible for SW sites in the several
hour period around daybreak Sunday as the front stalls and slowly
begins to pivot back to the N. Borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected
to continue through 18z before trending more solidly VFR into the
afternoon/evening Sunday.
WSW winds of 10-15kts, with gusts around 20-25kts, are expected to
resume this afternoon ahead of the approaching SHRA/TSRA. Wind will
go more northerly, and eventually northeasterly toward/beyond 06z in
the post-frontal environment. Winds will trend toward the ESE at
around 10kts by the end of the period once again.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday along with a chance for
thunderstorms. Additional storms are possible Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell/KC
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 19, 2:36 PM EDT---------------
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