LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 11, 2:47 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...976
FXUS64 KLIX 111947
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Dry northwesterly flow has redeveloped across the region leading
to sunny skies and dry conditions. With plenty of sun, surface
heating has done the job of warming us up with locations climbing
well into the 70s. That said, humidity values have tanked behind
the front with dewpoints in the 30s. With the strong surface
heating and slightly tighter pressure gradient, surface winds have
increased. A bit concerned about fire weather and, indeed, the
dry RH values and moderate winds would help with ignition and
spread of fire. However, moist antecedent conditions will likely
limit critical fire weather concerns. On Saturday, RH values will
be just as low and should look somewhat similar to today...outside
the decrease in winds as surface high pressure moves into the
region from the northwest. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
By Sunday, high pressure moves east allowing for a weak low level
return flow. Aloft, weak dry northwesterly flow continues on the
eastern periphery of a modest H5 ridge over central Texas. As the
ridge makes an attempt to spread eastward, temperatures will begin
to increase as heights and thicknesses modestly increase. By
Tuesday a weak front will move southward through the region.
Similar to the last front, this one too should be dry due to
limited moisture return out ahead of the front. Once again, behind
this frontal boundary we can expected a decrease in RH values as
well as perhaps slightly cooler nights. Otherwise, no appreciable
rainfall expected through both the short term and long term
period. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
VFR conditions through the cycle. Winds have transitioned to a
northerly direction with some gusts to 20-25 knots this afternoon.
Winds will decrease this evening shortly after sunset and should
remain on the light side through the remainder of the forecast
period. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025
A cold front moved south through the local waters this morning
shifting the winds to a northerly direction. Winds and seas have
also built behind the front and currently cautionary headline
conditions are being met. The eastern and outer most waters will
likely experience SCA thresholds at least briefly overnight
tonight and early Saturday. High pressure is forecast to move back
into the region later this weekend, which will limit winds and
promote more favorable marine conditions across the local waters.
Light to moderate winds are anticipated through the remainder of
the forecast period. A cold front will move through the region
Tuesday. At this juncture, only a modest increase in winds and
seas expected behind the weak frontal boundary. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 47 74 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 50 76 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 50 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 74 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 51 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 48 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for GMZ536-555-557-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for GMZ555-557-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 11, 2:47 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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