IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 2:35 PM EDT615
FXUS63 KIWX 151835
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry with clearing skies tonight into Wednesday. Trending
warmer into Thursday and Friday.
- There is chance (30-70%) for showers and isolated storms Thursday
night into early Friday, best chances north of US 6.
- Strong to severe storms possible late Friday afternoon into
Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Chilly cyclonic northwest flow will gradually loosen its grip on the
area into tonight and Wednesday. This will eventually allow
clouds/sprinkles to clear out and gusty winds to decrease during
this time. Ridging through the column does briefly translate through
late Wednesday into Wednesday night with light/variable winds.
An upper trough digs into the Northern Rockies and then releases
east-northeast as a positively tilted trough through the Upper
Midwest, northern Great Lakes and Ontario late this week. Deep,
increasing, southwest flow will set up a steady WAA regime locally
late Thursday afternoon into Friday in advance of the attendant sfc
reflection. Shower and elevated thunder chances enter the forecast
on the leading edge of the LLJ core and warm front late Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning, best chances along and north of US 6.
Warm sector then attempts to become well established by Friday
afternoon with an overspreading EML putting a cap of precip chances.
Breezy otherwise with Friday's highs potentially taking a run at the
upper 70s/near 80 if enough clearing is realized. Attention then
turns to thunderstorm potential with the incoming cold front and/or
pre-frontal trough Friday night. Expectations are for a high
shear/low CAPE setup by the time these frontal features drop in with
some potential (SPC day 4 15%) for severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall.
The bulk of model guidance suggest the main frontal zone and
associated higher rain chances shifting off to the south for the
upcoming weekend, though did retain a low-mid chance PoP given
lingering model spread regarding placement. Better rain chances
return early next week an upper low ejects out of the Four
Corners bringing another front through. Seasonable temps
otherwise this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Sharp post frontal inversion will be slow to breakdown into
tomorrow. Nonetheless good boundary layer drying has improved
cig heights into lower bound VFR. Otherwise strong, gusty nwrly
flow will diminish quickly by evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 2:35 PM EDT---------------
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