LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:50 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...684
FXUS64 KLIX 102050
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
350 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A cold front and parent trough will continue to slide southward
from the Ohio/TN River Valleys tonight and push through our area
tomorrow morning. Out ahead of the front there could be some
limited moisture pooling leading to a nonzero fog potential,
especially considering the recent rainfall and still saturated
soils. THe best potential looks to be across southwest MS and
perhaps as far south as the Florida Parishes.
On Friday, the moisture quality is lackluster to say the least and
there lacks much in the way of forcing with this system.
Therefore, the best rain and elevated convection potential will
reside north and east of our region. No it would not be completely
impossible for a shower to develop north of the I10/12 corridor
on Friday, however, this will certainly be the one exception
rather than the rule...so kept POPs below mentionable thresholds.
Northerly winds will gradually increase on Friday and some breezy
conditions are expected to develop behind the front, however, the
upper limit with winds looks to be right around 20-25 mph.
Temperatures will be a skosh cooler during the day and remain
below average at night through the period. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Going into the weekend a very similar weather pattern develops
(similar to what we've seen for much of the week) with dry
northwesterly upper flow over our region. At the surface, high
pressure will spread into the area bringing down surface winds.
Temperatures, although a bit cooler during the day and below
average at night will still be comfortable especially with much
drier air filtering into the region behind the short term period's
frontal boundary.
Going into the start of the new week surface high pressure begins
to moves east over the eastern portions of the Gulf. This will set
up a southerly return flow and perhaps allow a bit more moisture
to works its way northward into our CWFA. By Tuesday, globals
still have another front moving through but have back off QPF a
good bit despite some slight increase in low level moisture. So,
generally speaking the long term is somewhat going to be a carbon
copy of this week with dry northwesterly flow keeping things less
active and high pressure at the surface keeping winds in check
with continued mild temperatures. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. MCB is a bit questionable
in terms of fog development Friday morning. Covered them with
TEMPO. BTR will also see some reduced VIS as well. Otherwise,
winds will transition to a more northerly direction in time with
some gusts nearing 20kts by the end of the cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A cold front will move through the local waters early Friday
transitioning the winds to a more northerly direction. Behind the
front during the afternoon and into the overnight hours winds and
seas will begin to build. Small craft advisories have been issued
for the eastern and most of the outer waters. Elsewhere,
cautionary headlines will cover the remainder of the area. High
pressure will continue to spread into the region and once again
allow winds and seas to become more favorable. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 76 46 73 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 58 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 80 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 78 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 57 79 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
GMZ536-555-557-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
GMZ555-557-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:50 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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