MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 5:58 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...481
FXUS64 KMOB 081058
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will generally remain light and skies will remain mostly clear.
/73
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
A dry and mild night continues across the region, with mostly clear
skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. An upper ridge
remains anchored over the northern Gulf Coast, with an area of high
pressure building just south of the coast. This will keep dry
conditions in place through the weekend, as high pressure maintains
its hold on the sensible weather pattern. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal through the period, with highs today warming
into the lower to mid 90s. Despite weak northerly flow, temperatures
on Sunday will warm even more as highs climb into the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits Sunday afternoon,
but should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (heat index >= 108
degrees). Overnight lows will be on the more mild side, with temps
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s. /73
SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
The ridge will begin to dampen Sunday night as an upper trough digs
southward and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The forecast area
will remain on the southern fridge of this trough, with flow aloft
more zonal. Meanwhile, at the surface, a boundary will remain draped
along the coast, with winds remaining from the north for most of the
area. Moisture will be a bit more limited, though weak waves
swinging around the base of the trough, along with surface
convergence along the boundary, may be enough to initiate isolated
to scattered convection Monday afternoon. The axis of the trough
will move off the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday, with a weak ridge
building across the forecast area. This will limit rain chances,
though isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
peak heating hours. /73
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
The pattern becomes a bit messy Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a
southern stream trough/low moves into the ArkLaTex region. The
trough will slide southward through the day on Wednesday, with the
forecast area remaining on the eastern periphery of the trough. This
will shift flow aloft to more southerly, bringing an influx of low
to mid level moisture across the area. As the closed upper low
drifts southward over the Gulf of Mexico, surface cyclogenesis will
occur, with the surface low moving to the northeast through the day
on Thursday. This low will impact portions of the eastern Gulf Coast
region during the latter part of the upcoming work week, though
confidence on where this low moves is not very high. Regardless,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours, becoming more numerous over our southern zones by the end of
the week. /73
MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024
A light southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through today
and much of the day Sunday. Flow becomes more westerly on Monday,
with northerly flow expected for Tuesday. A weak system will
begin to take shape by mid week, with light to moderate easterly
flow expected for the latter half of the week . /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 92 71 93 73 93 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 30 30 20 20
Pensacola 91 74 92 77 91 74 90 75 / 0 0 0 10 50 40 30 30
Destin 89 76 89 78 90 76 89 77 / 0 0 0 10 40 50 30 40
Evergreen 93 66 96 71 92 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 40 20 20 20
Waynesboro 92 68 96 71 91 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 20 10
Camden 91 66 94 71 89 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 10 20 10
Crestview 95 66 96 70 95 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 40 20 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 5:58 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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