IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:00 AM EDT354
FXUS63 KIWX 130600
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers or sprinkles
possible today. Breezy southerly winds in the afternoon.
- Chances for rain showers Monday into early Tuesday, with the
best chances (around 35 percent) on Monday afternoon east of
Interstate 69.
- High temperatures in the 50s and 60s today and Monday falling
into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
An elongated area of high pressure is centered over the Mid
Mississippi valley this afternoon, providing sunshine and mild
conditions across the area. Increasing clouds overnight will keep
lows from dropping too much, only down to the mid 30s to near
40. Unlike the past two nights, frost is not expected.
Our next system arrives late Sunday into Monday. We are watching a
low pressure system to become better organized over the Rockies
today that will eject out over the Central/Northern Plains late
tonight into the day tomorrow. As this system traverses the
Plains and approaches to the Upper Great Lakes, clouds will
continue increase through the day on Sunday. As WAA ramps up,
southerly winds gusts to 30 mph will be possible Sunday.
Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday than they have been the
past few days with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s! Dry
conditions prevail for many locations tomorrow, although can't
rule out a few stray showers/sprinkles as WAA and moisture
increases.
On Monday, the area of low pressure will deepen as it moves
northeast from the Midwest over Lake Superior and into Ontario. The
system's attendant cold front will sweep through our forecast
area Monday late morning/afternoon. As the cold front interacts
with the warm air and moisture, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop, especially east of I69. There is low
confidence in a stronger storm or two clipping the far southeast
portion of our forecast area, but models support better severe
potential outside of our area across central and southern Ohio.
Depending on how early in the day the front passes through, the
western half of the area could end up completely dry.
Rain chances have increased on Tuesday as the trough pivots through.
Scattered light showers will be possible across the area. Tuesday
will be cooler - with highs only in the 40s - thanks to strong CAA
with the tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low.
Northwest winds will gust up to 30-35 mph on Tuesday afternoon.
The next chances for rain arrive late in the week on Thursday and
Friday, however, considerable uncertainty remains due to divergent
model solutions. The temperature forecast appears seasonable with
highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites today with light
S-SE winds at the surface strengthening to around 10-15 knots
this afternoon, with a few gusts up to around 20-25 knots. WAA
is allowing for weak returns on the radar, with isolated rain
showers or sprinkles possible as we saturate a bit more. As of
this writing, not seeing many reports of these returns reaching
the ground (ceilings mostly around 10-12Kft with a few
exceptions). Left out of TAF for now given limited reports and
any showers having minimal impact to the terminals. Otherwise,
as we decouple this evening expect LLWS of 40-45 knots
(strongest at KFWA), especially after 03Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:00 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
