BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:45 AM EDT826
FXUS61 KBOX 100745
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
345 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny conditions to start today, but a canopy of cloud
cover to develop into Southern New England later today. This
heralds a more unsettled and cloudy weather pattern, which
takes hold tonight and continues through the weekend, with a few
opportunities for rain showers. Initial light rains develop
overnight tonight, at times mixed with wet snow in interior
Southern New England but with no significant accumulation.
Cloudy but generally dry for Friday, but we expect another
soaking, windswept rain event for late Friday night into
Saturday. Additional rain possible in eastern New England on
Sunday. Clearing out and warming up early next week, but our
weather pattern may turn more unsettled again around midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Some sun early, but cloud cover increases in all areas by second
half of the day. Modest onshore breezes developing too.
* Temps in the mid 40s to around 50.
Details:
Variable amounts of cloudiness exists across Southern New
England early this morning, with a diffuse layer of mid-level
overcast over most of northern MA and into Hartford County and
mostly clear conditions over southeast New England. This layer
of cloudiness seems to have halted stronger cooling in the
interior where current temps have started to rise or hover
around upper 20s/near 30, with coolest readings over SE New
England with more sustained clearing. However a broader shield
of midlevel cloud cover was evident in morning infrared imagery
across most of the northern mid-Atlantic and OH Valley region,
poised to move eastward into Southern New England through today,
ahead of a warm front.
In an effort to not bury the lede, today's likely going to be
the last day of some sun until Monday, so hopefully you'll have
some time today to enjoy it! However we will see increased cloud
cover as we move through today, in particular by the afternoon
hours. With sfc high pressure established to our southeast, will
also see a modest onshore flow develop with a
seabreeze/synoptic hybrid breeze near the coastal areas. Dry
weather to prevail today even as cloudiness eventually expands
eastward. The combo of the increasing clouds and onshore flow
should keep highs around the 40s, perhaps near 50 in the
interior areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Weak warm front brings an interior rain/wet snow mix with
eastern/coastal light rains late tonight into the pre-dawn hrs.
QPF is light and any snow coatings in interior MA/CT/NW RI on non-
paved surfaces.
* Light precipitation ends early Fri, but likely with a lot of
leftover cloud cover and increasing northeast winds. Cool, raw
Friday looking likely, with temps in the 40s.
Details:
Weak warm-frontal precipitation should be moving into Southern
New England during the late-evening to pre-dawn hours. Expect
this precip to fill into western New England around 8-10 PM and
then slowly lifting E/NE into central and parts of eastern MA
and much of RI during the overnight. This precip will be falling
into an established ridge of sfc high pressure across most of
coastal MA into coastal NH/ME. Thermal profiles are rather
deeply isothermal but are marginally cold enough along or west
of Route 495 where rain may mix with wet snow with temps in the
low to mid 30s. This is not the type of synoptic configuration
that lends itself to much QPF and we may struggle to really eke
out much of any QPF the further east one goes. With nearly a
half-inch of QPF, felt the 00z NAM came in as a wet/juiced
outlier and largely discounted it. Even where wet snow mixes in
with the rain, really can't see much of any accumulation in
lower elevations, with better chances at slushy coatings on
grassy non-paved surfaces. PoPs were in the higher- Likely
range, then start to decrease from south to north, but it may
take until mid-morning Fri for northern interior areas for
precip to turn more intermittent. Winds will also be turning
from light SE to an E/NE and an increase in speed to around 5-10
mph around daybreak. Lows should be in the mid 30s for most,
with lower 30s for the Berkshires, Worcester and Tolland Hills
where better chances at slushy coatings may occur.
For Friday, the ridge that the overnight to early Friday precip
was moving into in NH/ME then surges/reasserts itself
southward. Although areas north and west of Worcester may still
be dealing with light showers early Friday, precip should turn
more intermittent if not turn dry entirely as the ridge axis
builds southward. Will we shake free of cloudiness though?
That's the question. The 00z guidance is mixed on that, GFS
actually shows a dryslot atop shallow moisture which could favor
lots of stratus, while the NAM is more optimistic. Pattern
recogntion with a cool-air damming look with precipitation
falling into a sfc ridge that builds back in from the north is
not one that lends itself to much of any sun. Besides a
likelihood for abundant clouds, NE winds will be picking up in
speed to around 10-15 mph, strongest near the coasts and
Cape/Islands. Kept highs only in the 40s (low 40s east coastal
areas and the hills), with the CT Valley having the best shot at
reaching 50. If we do see less cloud cover, then temps could be
too cold in the interior and would need upward adjustments, but
that seems optimistic given synoptic pattern.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dreary and unsettled weekend
* Widespread soaking rain Saturday for the region with more chances
for rain Sunday for the eastern coast
* Warmer to start the week before the chance for more rain returns
with another frontal system
Details...
A deep, slow-moving trough over the Appalachians will be the main
source of this weekend's pattern. Surface low pressure along the
East Coast will slowly move north, bringing with it light to
moderate soaking rain. Periods of wind-driven rain from ENE winds
around 15 knots (gusting to around 25 knots) are also a possibility.
Generally, the majority of this rain is expected starting Friday
night going into Saturday, but timing on when and where the heaviest
will occur still varies a bit across the guidance. However, PWAT
values over 0.75" are favored across much of southern New England,
with some spots over the Cape and Islands at 0.8" or higher. Totals
will likely be over 0.5" for much of the region, especially over SE
MA and RI where totals for Saturday may likely be 0.75" or greater.
Lows Friday night will be in the 30s, as colder air aloft (925 mb
temps ranging from -5C to 0C) lingers; highs Saturday will settle in
the 40s as well.
Low pressure passes close to but south of southern New England,
leading to the return of rain chances across the eastern MA coast
Sunday after a respite across the rest of the region Saturday night.
Totals for this event will likely be a bit lower, as the rain
associated with this should be lighter. Forecast soundings indicate
some drier air aloft while PWATs are still in the 0.7-0.75" range
along the eastern coast. These will likely fall as the day
progresses and dry air moves into the region. It is worth noting
that this low's exact track is still varying a bit across the
guidance, so much can still change as the event draws closer.
The trough associated with the weekend's unsettled weather is
expected to move offshore by the start of next week. Ridging and its
high pressure builds in a bit Monday ahead of yet another trough
across the Great Lakes. N/NW winds shift south Monday night/Tuesday
morning with the arrival of a warm front, and low rain chances make
a return going into Tuesday. Temperatures to start the week will
likely be warmer, with highs on Monday and Tuesday reaching the 60s.
Cooler and possibly unsettled weather may make its return by midweek
with this frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through 12z Thursday: High confidence.
VFR with light/calm winds for most, with slightly stronger W
winds to around 5 kt for ACK.
Today: High confidence.
VFR, albeit with increasing mid to high clouds late in the day.
Possible borderline VFR/MVFR bases far western New England
airports after 22z Thu. Light winds from the overnight will
rather quickly flip/shift to E/SE around mid morning and
increase in speed to around 5-10 kt.
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR-IFR levels from west to east
during the 03-09z timeframe, as weak warm-frontal precip moves
in. Temps are borderline but should be cold enough at onset for
a slushy rain/snow mixture for most airports away/west of Route
128. Best chance at coatings of slushy accums and visbys no
worse than 3 SM at BAF, BDL and ORH. PVD could briefly see
flakes but should be a largely light rain p-type. Light rain at
BED/BOS with the Cape/Islands staying mainly dry. Should see
this precip taper off across the south towards daybreak, but may
continue. SSE to SE winds 4-7 kt back to E/NE toward daybreak
Fri.
Friday: Moderate confidence.
Warm frontal precip from overnight more or less dissipates or
lifts north as high pressure ridge over NH/coastal ME reasserts
itself back into SNE. While visbys should trend to VFR levels,
am pessimistic on cigs improving and we could be left with a
mostly MVFR conditions, with interior MVFR/IFR condition,
accompanied by off-and-on light rain showers or drizzle. ENE
winds increase to around 10 kt in all areas by Fri aftn, and
continue to increase to around 10-15 kt with low-20s kt gusts
for the Cape and Islands.
BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with SE winds develop
around 14z, though may become more southerly early tonight.
Cigs lower to MVFR with light -SHRA overnight/pre-dawn Fri with
winds backing to E again.
BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR deteriorates to MVFR/IFR
after 03z with 3-5 SM -RASN though runways probably more wet
than slushy. S winds shift back to E/NE overnight tonight.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.
Saturday Night through Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
330 AM Update:
Light winds early today become SE and increase to around 10-15
kt on most waters this afternoon and tonight. Seas 3 ft or less
all waters. There is a risk for light showers overnight tonight
but visbys not likely to be significantly reduced in any
showers.
For Friday, winds to shift to NE early in the day and steadily
increase in speed to 15 to 20 kt. May have gusts nearing SCA
levels on the southern waters very late Friday but looks more
likely into early Friday night. Besides the increasing NE winds,
seas will be building in the face of the NE winds, to around 3-5
ft on the southern waters. and around 2-4 ft on the northeast
waters. Likely to need marine headlines starting either very
late Fri aftn or early Fri night.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers likely, rain,
isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Rain showers likely.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:45 AM EDT----------------
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