IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:46 PM EDT741
FXUS63 KIWX 091846
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread light to moderate rain is expected this evening
and overnight, possibly mixing with light snow across far
northern areas along the IN/MI state line into northwest OH.
- A gradual warming trend is expected through the remainder of
the week into the weekend, with temperatures returning back to
above normal by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
A broad area of rain (and perhaps a rain/snow mix for some areas)
will continue to expand in coverage and intensity through the late
afternoon and evening hours, courtesy of substantial isentropic lift
on the 290k surface ahead of a fast moving, shallow short wave
trough poised to track across the area overnight. As the isentropic
upglide weakens, strengthening PVA aloft will maintain precipitation
chances through the night as the trough axis translates eastward
across the CWA. In general, expect precipitation to primarily be
rain as thermal profiles appear quite marginal for snow, but cannot
entirely rule out a brief mix especially along the IN/MI state line
into northwest OH where temperatures may drop into the middle 30s
tonight. Any accumulations would likely be insignificant, with
perhaps a couple tenths of an inch possible on grassy or elevated
surfaces should a heavier snow shower move overhead. Rain chances
should decrease markedly by 09-12z Thursday on the back side of the
trough as a much drier air mass moves in, along with some larger
scale subsidence. There will be some potential for patchy fog around
this general time frame as gradients weaken given the recent
widespread precipitation and lowering inversions, but at this time
do not expect widespread dense fog. In general, expect Thursday to
be mainly dry but did maintain some low-end (~15%) PoPs as some
light instability driven showers cannot be entirely ruled out. The
best chance for anything measureable should remain along/south of US-
24. A gradual warming trend can be expected through the weekend as
upper-level ridging builds back into the region, with widespread 60s
returning by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Developing rain today and deteriorating cigs later this
afternoon into tonight will be the primary aviation weather
forecast issues. Initial airmass is still quite dry and will
take some time to moisten, so timing of rainfall has been pushed
back some. Latest thinking is now that rain shower chances will
increase at KSBN after 19Z and possibly closer to 21Z at KFWA.
A lull in rain is possible early this evening before primary
upper trough drops into the region with additional rain
expected. Will maintain idea of trend to IFR conditions this
evening as sfc low reflection tracks across central Indiana.
Combination of low clouds and even some fog north of this low
track could promote LIFR conditions later tonight. Visibilities
should improve late morning Thursday, but ceilings are expected
to remain IFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Cobb
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:46 PM EDT---------------
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