PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:41 AM EDT029
FXUS61 KPBZ 090641
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
241 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The next system approaches with rain and snow chances tonight
and through the weekend. No foreseeable notably impactful
weather expected for the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow showers ending.
- A rebound in temperatures today but still 5 - 10 degrees
below normal.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A weak trough will have crossed the forecast area through dawn
bringing an end to the scattered snow showers over the north.
Snow showers have been light crossing the northern portion of
the forecast area with only a few reductions in visibility.
Heading through the day, cloud cover will be on the increase
through the day as the next shortwave trough takes aim at the
area tonight. Highs expected today will be warmer than yesterday
but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Another system will bring a round of rain and snow showers
tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight, a deepening 500mb trough will enhance surface
convergence along the inflection point of the upper jet,
resulting in increasing precipitation chances. Surface low
development is expected in the upper Midwest. As the low
occludes, it will slow it progression speed as it drops back
under the upper low into Thursday and Thursday night. The best
chance of rain will come during the daylight hours Thursday.
Should the low be a little earlier, it may even allow for some
snow chances early Thursday morning, particularly northeast of
Pittsburgh. For now, chances of accumulations are around 60%
there, with a <30% of >1" around the Punxsutawney area and north
of there. By Friday morning, there's a <10% chance of >1" of
rain, which should not result in many hydrological concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued precipitation chances through the weekend with a
warmup forecast next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
There has been increasing confidence in a secondary, reinforcing
shortwave trough rounding the 500mb low, and reinforcing surface
low development in the Tennessee River Valley. The most
probable tracks following this low take it east of the area and
into the mid- Atlantic, utilizing the best moisture
availability on its eastern and oceanic flank. If the parent
trough sits just slightly farther west, this may allow some
additional rains >1" across the area, but at this time this
remains low probability (only a 30% to 50% chance of >1" in the
high terrain for now).
By Sunday, temperature uncertainty increases as ensemble
clustering diverges, with some membership cutting off the low
over the east and stalling ridging to the west. On the other
hand, there are camps that drag the trough east, leading to
ridging into Sunday and Monday. Through early next week, the
main uncertainty in temperatures becomes how warm it will get,
depending on the heights portrayed in quasi-zonal flow. By any
means, temperatures will likely be higher than the week prior.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Diurnally driven cumulus development has waned this evening and
will continue to do so as mixing has eroded the shallow moist
layer underneath a subsidence inversion. Wind will follow a
similar trend becoming 5 knots or less overnight as the surface
stabilizes and the pressure gradient relaxes with building high
pressure.
Cloud coverage should increase again Wednesday afternoon with
increasing moist, southwesterly flow ahead of the next surface
wave. Southwesterly flow will gust in the 5-10kt range during
daylight. Rain will return this evening (snow for FKL/DUJ),
eventually lowering area cigs into MVFR Wednesday night.
Outlook...
The next low pressure system arrives late Wednesday into
Thursday and is likely to initiate another prolonged period of
restrictions and occasional precipitation chances as deep Great
Lake troughing develops.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Milcarek/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Milcarek/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:41 AM EDT---------------
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