ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 2:01 PM EDT365
FXUS61 KILN 131801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off to the southeast will provide one more warm
and dry day. Some showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of
a cold front that will cross the area late tonight into Friday.
This will cause temperatures to fall back a bit for the end of
the week, but hot conditions will quickly develop on Sunday and
continue for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few light returns are showing up on radar near and north of
Interstate 70. These light returns are falling from higher based
clouds and therefore not expecting much to reach the ground,
however have added isolated showers to the forecast in a few
locations for this morning. Otherwise generally expect dry
conditions until after the near term.
Warmer conditions will be in place today with high temperatures
in the upper 80s. Went on the warm side of guidance today due to
dry air in place and plenty of sunshine expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Convective complex that will likely develop in the midwest
tonight will weaken as it dives southeast towards the area.
Still a pretty good chance of getting some rain into west
central Ohio and east central Indiana, but then chances fade
fairly quickly further into the forecast area.
Effective front forced by the outflow of the weakening storms
will move through much of the area by late tonight. But as the
actual cold front drops into the area during the afternoon and
a short wave moves southeast through the Great Lakes, some
additional showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
boundary with better coverage in eastern counties where there is
a bit more upper support.
It will be a warm night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. A
fair amount of clouds should result in slightly cooler highs
with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary likely to have shifted south and east of the
ILN CWA by Friday night. Will keep PoPs out of the forecast Friday
night as most guidance clears out the front/precip by this
timeframe.
H5 ridge will be quick to build back in across the Midwest region on
Saturday. However, there will still be a noticeable drop in the
humidity as dewpoints will dip back into the 50s (and perhaps upper
40s) Saturday after being in the 60s on Friday. Surface temperatures
will be near seasonal normals for the day, only slightly lower than
the expected temperatures on Friday.
H5 ridging continues to amplify across the eastern CONUS through the
remainder of the weekend, persisting into the next work week. The x-
factor in how our forecast will be impacted will be reliant on the
location of the high pressure underneath the ridge feature. With
some solutions favoring the high pressure center further southeast
towards the Atlantic coast, this could allow for shortwave energy to
eject across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and
initiate showers/storms in our fa, primarily Monday and perhaps
Tuesday. This is still on the table as a possibility, which of
course would impact the potential high temperature forecast on those
days. After we get through Tuesday, there is higher confidence in
global models that the H5 ridge will continue to amplify and expand.
This will bring a prolonged period of warmer than normal
temperatures across the region. We could be looking at several days
with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s for next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the TAF period. Showers will
approach and move through the TAF sites overnight and into the
day on Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the
region. There is some instability so there will likely be some
thunderstorms, however confidence in any one location or time is
not high enough to include at this time. Winds will shift
through the TAF period with the precipitation and frontal
boundary moving through.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 2:01 PM EDT---------------
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