PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:27 AM CDT482
FXUS63 KPAH 080827
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Significant flooding continues across the area due to
extremely high rainfall amounts experienced over the past
week. Many rivers will crest in moderate to major levels, with
a few near record levels.
- After near freezing temperatures early this morning, a chilly
day is on tap today with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
- Rain chances return mid-week, primarily Wednesday night and
Thursday. Overall amounts look light though, generally 0.25"
or less for most areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
The passage of a cold front late Monday afternoon and evening
ushered even colder air into the region overnight. As of 3 AM,
temperatures had dropped to near the freezing mark in northern
portions of the region, with readings still in the lower 40s
across extreme southern sections. By daybreak, temperatures
across much of the area should be near or below freezing, but
southern sections will likely manage to remain above freezing.
Nevertheless, we'll keep the Freeze Warning in place across the
entire region through 9 AM.
The rest of the day looks rather chilly as high pressure builds
in from the Upper Midwest. Despite ample sunshine, highs today
are only forecast to range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
Tonight, the high will shift east of the region, which will
allow for southerly winds to pick up ahead of low pressure and
its associated frontal system approaching from the west. With
low temperatures forecast in the middle 30s tonight, there is
some potential for frost to develop. However, the increase in
winds overnight may mitigate that potential to a large extent.
Will hold off on any headlines for now, but concede that a Frost
Advisory may eventually become necessary, especially across the
eastern third of the forecast area where the coldest air and
lightest winds are forecast.
On Wednesday, increasing clouds and warmer temperatures are
anticipated ahead of a strengthening upper level trough and
approaching low pressure system. While most of the precipitation
is expected to hold off until Wednesday night and Thursday, a
few showers are not out of the question by Wednesday afternoon
over northern sections of southern Illinois and southwest
Indiana. Enough instability is indicated to pose the potential
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night, then
again Thursday afternoon. While severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated, it's possible that some of the storms may be
capable of producing hail Thursday afternoon depending on the
degree of instability that develops.
The precipitation will shift east of the region Thursday night
and especially on Friday as the upper trough begins to pull
away. In it's wake, upper level ridging is forecast to build
east from the Plains over the weekend. This will yield dry
conditions along with a warming trend as highs top the 60 degree
mark on Saturday, then range around 70 on Sunday, and reach near
80 by Monday. Our next chance of precipitation appears slated
for next Monday night and Tuesday with the approach of the next
weather system.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Skies are now turning mostly clear with diminishing gusty winds
as a front sags south. Winds will be north to northeast between
4-10 kts on Tuesday, followed by light & variable Tuesday
evening as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:27 AM CDT---------------
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