ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 4:17 PM EDT214
FXUS61 KILN 062017
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
One last wave of low pressure will bring precipitation to the Ohio
Valley this evening. High pressure briefly builds in late tonight and
early Monday, before a cold front moves through the area Monday
afternoon. Drier weather and high pressure will return to the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much below normal temperatures are
forecast through much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
One last wave of rain is expected to move across the Ohio Valley late
this afternoon and evening. Decided to cancel the Flood Watch as new
rainfall amounts will be light however some Flood Advisories will
remain in effect due to ongoing flooding/road closures from earlier
heavy rainfall.
Given colder air moving in from the northwest, some wet snow could
mix in with the rain this evening from east-central Indiana into
western and central Ohio. No accumulation is expected.
Much of the precip will be to the east after midnight. Drier air and
some clearing should occur from northwest to southeast late at night.
While the wind will diminish some, not sure that winds will be light
and any frost formation may be limited even with lows dropping into
the the lower to mid 30s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, a trough will be found across the Great Lakes and
Northeast. A cold front will move through in the afternoon. Front may
be able to squeeze out a few showers especially across west-central
and central Ohio. Highs will be in the 50s on Monday.
Monday night, there will be another shot of cold advection, sending
temperatures into the lower to mid 20s for lows. We have initiated
the beginning of the spring frost/freeze season and therefore have
issued a Freeze Watch.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday, surface high pressure pays a brief visit. Despite some
sunshine, it will be chilly with highs only in the lower to mid 40s.
Tuesday night will feature another cold night, with sub-freezing
temperatures with decent radiational cooling.
By Wednesday, high pressure moves away and another quick moving
shortwave/front will bring more clouds and a chance of precipitation
particularly Wednesday night and Thursday.
Ohio Valley likely will remain influenced by a trough through the
rest of the week. This would generally lead to unsettled conditions
and below normal temperatures. Trough may start to retreat over the
weekend, although confidence is low on details this weekend as
sometimes these troughs linger longer than what early guidance
suggests.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Variable conditions have been observed early this afternoon, but as
another area of rain moves across the terminals during the mid to
late afternoon, expect prevailing MVFR conditions with the
possibility of occasional IFR conditions especially over the
Cincinnati terminals. Once rain ends this evening (perhaps even
mixing with wet snowflakes near KCMH/KLCK), low level moisture may
keep MVFR cigs and/or vsbys in place for a while tonight. The degree
of clearing late tonight is uncertain, however if clearing does occur
from the northwest (affecting locations such as KDAY) and winds
become light, then low vsbys in fog may be possible. However have not
included this in TAFs currently due to low confidence. Trend is for
VFR conditions to return Monday morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 4:17 PM EDT---------------
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